After Hurricane Harvey made landfall as a very rare Category 4 and proceeded to nearly stall over SE Texas with catastrophic flooding consequences (total damage, much of it uninsured, could be in the $70-90 billion range), we have a new problem.
Hurricane Irma came off the west coast of Africa with the classic look of a “Cape Verde” hurricane. (Many of the hemisphere’s strongest hurricanes have formed near the Cape Verde islands in the far eastern Atlantic.) True to form, this morning Irma was upgraded to a Category 5. It is the strongest Atlantic hurricane in a decade and it is already in rare territory for any hurricane, having hit 175 mph sustained winds (see below). That puts it on par with the max intensity of such disasters as Katrina, Andrew, and Camille, among others. It is also the furthest east (57.5 degrees west) of any 175-mph storm on record. That gives it an unprecedented length of wide-open warm water. Conditions are perfect for a monster hurricane to persist – or even to strengthen – over the next few days.
And the projected track could not be worse. Our best hope right now is either a glancing blow off the mountains of Cuba (which would be terrible for Cuba but might be just enough to disrupt the circulation as it approaches Florida) or a dramatic and unexpected recurve out to sea. The latest projections have been tipping westward, into Cuba, but at this point there are no good options. The next 2-3 days will see an untouched Category 4/5 hurricane roll across the Atlantic, and by Thursday we’ll have a better idea of the track. The intensity is tougher to pinpoint -- Harvey just exploded into a Category 4 from a standing start in the Gulf over a mere two days -- so that issue will remain fuzzier than the track. At some point the hurricane will “cycle” and it could well be downgrade to Category 3 or 4. But that may not matter much, and it is normal for a storm like this to evolve through time. In any case, the odds are very favorable for a major (Category 3 or higher) landfall in the Caribbean and/or Florida by Friday into the weekend. A track and potential redevelopment in the Gulf is also looking likelier by the day. Anyone within 500 miles of this storm should be paying close attention.
Here are three possible tracks – these are model simulations only and far from assured. They are illustrative only because they are reasonable and, if verified, would be an enormous problem for South Florida and the Miami area.
- https://video.twimg.com/tweet_video/DI9-ri9VYAA9F2y.mp4
- https://video.twimg.com/tweet_video/DI98eznV4AEzl2n.mp4
Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach
This email is confidential and intended only for the recipient(s). If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender at compliance@anabaticllc.com and delete this message and any attachments. This message is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy any financial instruments. Please see the full disclaimer at www.anabaticllc.com.
No comments:
Post a Comment