hurricane updates

Two updates and one recap on what is shaping up to be the worst hurricane season since 2005.

 

Jose

 

Jose is still churning in the Atlantic 12 days after its formation. The good news is that despite some coastal erosion and flooding it is not likely to make a direct landfall in the U.S.

 

Maria

 

Maria is a horrific Category 5 hurricane with current sustained winds of 160 mph. It made a direct hit last night on Dominica, and the early reports of damage are as bad as you would expect. Due to their small size and location it is actually rare for islands in that vicinity to suffer direct hits from major hurricanes. Records are spotty before ~1970 but this is believed to be the first-ever Category 5 to hit Dominica. Much like Irma for St. Martin and Barbuda and others, this storm will have life-altering consequences for many thousands of people.

 

Maria is also unique because it went from a newly formed hurricane to a Category 5 monster in just over 24 hours. That kind of intensification is insane. It weakened due to its brief encounter with Dominica but it has already regained Category 5 strength over open water. And now Maria is taking aim at Puerto Rico. The odds are very high that Puerto Rico will take a direct hit or glancing blow from a major hurricane. Again, this is not as common as it might seem – Georges in 1998 was the last major (Category 3 or higher) hurricane landfall. This storm is likely to be Category 4 or 5, with devastating winds and 1-2 feet of rain that will cause horrendous flooding and mudslides. The exact path is uncertain, of course, but a direct hit could lead to the worst-ever hurricane impact on Puerto Rico. Anyone in the path – which also includes the U.S. Virgin Islands – should pay close attention and heed evacuation orders.

 

The only good news is that Maria is likely to head north and stay east of the U.S. mainland.

 

 

 

Cat. 5 formation map – via @philklotzbach

 

 

 

Irma recap (note: I wrote this last week but forgot to send it, so it may need to be update for the latest information and developments)

 

Back to good news / bad news. The good news is that many people took heed of the forecasts and got out of harm’s way. A storm of this strength could have killed far more people than it did. (The death toll in Florida as of this writing is 42 and still climbing.) The other good news is that even though the impacts ranged from catastrophic in the keys to severe in the Naples area, this could have been far worse. The storm not only weakened a little bit right before landfall, it also jogged inland by about 30-40 miles. That minor difference spared all three major metros (the Naples, Miami and Tampa areas) from a direct hit. Improved building codes also lead to much more manageable property damage in most areas. Still, the loss of life and property is tragic. This storm will go down among the costliest in American history. Other facts and figures:

 

• A comprehensive list of Irma data and records established: https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/09/Hurricane-Irma-Records.pdf
• Irma made landfall in the Keys at 929 mb, tying for seventh place among all landfalling U.S. hurricanes.
  • Except for the unfortunate Keys, the track could not have been better – the core of the eyewall went through the Everglades, just east of the SW Florida cites and just west of Miami. A major bullet was dodged through the luck of that 30-40 mile variation.
• Recorded wind speeds (note – several sites in the Keys failed early, and other reports are still being compiled):
  • 142 mph Naples
  • 130 mph Marco Island
  • 99 mph Miami Int’l
• Official rainfall totals in the 6-15 inch range. Highest total at Ft. Pierce/St. Lucie County Airport (15.91”).
• With almost 20 million people affected, and with a massive evacuation and disruption to work/school, this may have been one of the most disruptive storms in American history
• All major Florida airports remain closed for at least the second consecutive day, disrupting schedules nationwide. Miami Int’l Airport took significant water damage and will be closed for at least one day longer than expected.
• 6 million customers (58% of the entire state) were without power on Monday morning as of 6 am EDT.
• After pulling toward the west for days, a last minute jog back to the east saved many areas – especially the entire Tampa area – from far worse flooding.
  • The prior jog to the south was Cuba’s great misfortune, but the Category 5 landfall there was enough to weaken the storm considerably before it turned north.
  • Key West – the most populated area of the Keys – also got a major break when it caught the less-dangerous part of the storm as the front-right quadrant over the storm passed 30-40 miles to the east over less developed areas.
• A cluster of thousands of birds got trapped inside the eye of the storm, and it was big enough to be visible on radar.
• Most of the paint on the ocean-facing side of the “Southernmost” buoy on Key West was scoured off by the waves and wind.
• On the opposite corner of the state from the original landfall, Jacksonville set the all-time record for flooding at its downtown site (St. John’s River at Main Street bridge), breaking a record set by Hurricane Dora in 1954. Savannah, GA and Charleston, SC are also seeing major flooding. Additional inland flooding from rainfall is ongoing.
• By one measure (“Accumulated Cyclonic Energy”) Irma by itself generated the Atlantic basin’s full-season average of storm energy
• The surge in Naples was higher during Donna, reportedly – it predates official records there – but Irma set the record since then
• One storm chaser got a handheld wind measurement of 117 mph in the Keys: https://t.co/VhC97GZJBa
• A vivid example of storm surge in the Keys: https://twitter.com/CNN/status/907025993914658817
• A construction crane in Miami was snapped – thankfully the 20-25 others in the city did not come down. (picture below)
• Brickell Ave. in Miami suffered extensive flooding. (pictures below)
• A word on forecasting. In short, this was a qualified victory. The margin of error for forecasting has dropped by about 50% in the last 15-20 years, and this is a good example of that. It would be wonderful to be able to pinpoint the details of the center of circulation and intensity, but that’s just not possible at this point. The complexity of the atmosphere requires an immense of calculating power to provide any reasonable approximation, and it does not allow more accurate forecasts than what you see below.
  • Every official NHC forecast fell within the cone. More than four days of advance warning was provided with accuracy <100 miles. (Again, the landfall occurred 90 miles from downtown Miami, and that landfall was well within the projection. NHC provided more than 45 official forecasts dating back to August 30^th when it was a tropical wave off the coast of Africa. Yes, the forecasts need to get better, but that is always true.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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