Some minor changes with significant impacts, so one more update: The entire Florida peninsula is still going to see hurricane conditions and the news could hardly be worse for the Keys and the SW coast from Naples to Tampa.
The steering winds have caused one of the possible 25-50 mile shifts in the track, resulting in less-bad news for Miami and awful news for the Keys and SW/W Florida. Miami/Homestead is still going to see Category 1-2 conditions and a few feet of storm surge. There will be surge problems from Miami to Charleston but the track has shifted to the far western side of the possible ranges mentioned yesterday. That alleviates some of the problems on the east side of Florida while making things far worse for the west coast. (And don’t pay attention to the “cone” – that is the range of uncertainty about the exact center of the storm. There will be hurricane conditions well outside the stupid cone graphic.)
Irma made landfall in Cuba last night with Category 5 winds. The interaction with land weakened the storm somewhat, but as it reemerges over very warm waters it is likely to strengthen again. Category 4 winds (130-140 mph sustained and 150-160 mph gusts) are likely over the Keys and into Marco Island-Sanibel-Naples-Fort Myers. If the eye stays just offshore it could retain 130-140 mph winds for almost the entire length of the state. Storm surge of 5-10 feet is going to be a huge problem as well. A catastrophic surge of 15 feet is possible in some places. NHC says specifically that “Storm surge flooding of 10-15 ft is now expected along the SW Florida coast. This is a dire and life-threatening situation.” An 8-foot surge in Tampa and 10-12 feet in Naples is as serious as it gets – anyone in an evacuation zone should absolutely evacuate. Most of Lee County looks vulnerable a massive surge. Tampa is also one of the country’s most prone major cities to a major hurricane and surge, and every tick to the west puts it in greater danger. There is now a plausible scenario with a Category 4 hurricane paralleling the coast and making a direct hit on Tampa.
The Keys will see the first landfall in the early hours of Sunday morning. Key West or somewhere within 20-30 miles will likely take a direct hit. And there is going to be a 40-50 mile swath of extreme devastation. The director of the National Hurricane Center says that he does not know if the conditions will be survivable for anyone who remains on the Keys. That is not exaggeration – the average elevation on many of the islands is 5-7 feet, and the surge could easily reach 8-10 feet with catastrophic wind damage. The mandatory evacuation order is not to be ignored.
From: Philip C. Ordway [mailto:pordway=anabaticllc.com@mail183.sea22.mcdlv.net] On Behalf Of Philip C. Ordway
Sent: Friday, September 8, 2017 3:49 PM
To: Philip C. Ordway <pordway@anabaticllc.com>
Subject: last Irma update
Well, the bad news keeps coming. Florida is looking at a major hurricane and possibly a historically devastating one – the chances of a total miss are almost gone, and severe, if not catastrophic, damage in the state is all but assured. It is tempting to feel numb to the massive amount exposure this storm has had all week, but the forecasts have verified and now it’s here.
Irma weakened through its “eyewall replacement cycle” and as it began to interact with some wind shear. Now, to make matters worse, it has begun to intensify again as it hits some of the warmest ocean water in the world. Winds are back to 155 mph sustained and – even though it doesn’t make any material difference – it could regain Category 5 status at any point tonight or tomorrow. (The official and arbitrary cutoff is 157 mph.) At landfall, sustained winds will likely be 140 mph or higher, and that is catastrophic for any locations in the direct path.
The landfall location down to the last 50-75 miles is still up for debate. That will be crucial in determining localized damage that will range from severe to extreme but there are no “good” options. The details are less important if you consider that a ~75-mile-wide swath (almost the entire width of south Florida) will see Category 4 devastation and literally everyone in Florida from Orlando south will see Category 1-3 conditions and damage. A huge storm surge threat is emerging from Jacksonville to Charleston on the right side and from Tampa to Naples on the left side – this storm is that massive and that powerful.
The ECMWF model won again. The trend, which ECMWF correctly picked up again, has been to the west. Each run is nudging the track a few miles west. If that pans out it is a marginal improvement for Miami – although far from a salvation – and a massive problem for the Naples-Fort Myers area.
The current best guess is an early Sunday landfall over the central Keys (near or west of Islamorada, with an elevation of ~7 feet and a storm surge that could top 10 feet) and the far SW tip of Florida. That would spare Miami the absolute worst of the storm, but it would bring awful conditions to SW Florida and over a larger area as it crawls almost directly up the spine of the peninsula. A 25-50 mile shift west would be worse for the west coast of Florida, and a 25-50 miles shift west would be worse for Miami all the way up to Charleston, SC. If the current guess prevails, that would take 140-160 mph gusts over the Keys (with catastrophic damage) and 110-140 mph gusts into Marco Island-Naples-Fort Myers. To the extent that Miami prepared and SW Florida did not, that is a massive problem. Even in this scenario Miami would see winds 90-110 mph with a storm surge of 5-9 feet along the coast leading to significant wind damage and severe flooding. All of south Florida will see a foot or more of rain.
But the main message is that the luck ran out. Regardless of the specifics, severe wind damage and a major storm surge is on the way. The peak surge in SW Florida calls for 6-12 feet from Captiva to Cape Sable, and 5-10 feet from Jupiter Inlet to the Keys as well as in Biscayne Bay and Miami Beach. That is a big, big problem.
This is going to be a top-five hurricane by strength at landfall for Florida. It will probably be a top-five hurricane by total dollars of damage. Only a handful of hurricanes have ever hit the U.S. with higher sustained winds, and even fewer have presented as much storm-surge potential. The only comparable storms in modern Florida history are Andrew (1992) and Charley (2004). Irma will have winds ~20-30 below Andrew’s and at least as strong as Charley’s but likely with worse storm surge damage than either.
There is going to be flood/surge damage from the west coast of Florida all the way to Charleston, SC. Any areas that saw flooding during Matthew will likely seeing flooding that is equal to or worse than that. The hurricane-force windfield (with ~100 mph gusts) will likely be wider than the entire Florida peninsula. 60-80 mph gusts – and power outages – could make it all the way to Atlanta by Monday.
The situation is already grim. People seem to be heeding the warnings, which is great, but reports show gas stations in the Miami area were already empty on Thursday night. Grocery stores have been cleaned out. Traffic is a nightmare. Hopefully the next 24 hours will give enough time for people to secure property and get away from the ocean.
On a more trivial level, the economic impact will be significant. Travel delays will last for days if not weeks. MIA, FLL, and MCO, among others, will be closed for a few days, disrupting flight schedules across the country. Tens of billions of dollars will be lost and countless homes will be ruined. Somewhere around two million homes could lose power, and in some places it may not come back for days. Florida Power & Light is already making plans to shut down its nukes, and these kinds of winds can snap even the sturdiest wood/metal power poles.
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This email is confidential and intended only for the recipient(s). If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender at compliance@anabaticllc.com and delete this message and any attachments. This message is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy any financial instruments. Please see the full disclaimer at www.anabaticllc.com.
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