Sorry for one more email, but this is an unreal situation with wide-ranging impacts. I will save future updates for Thursday/Friday when the track will come into better focus, but all travel plans – let alone anyone with friends or property in the path of the storm – should be on notice.
Irma has continued to intensify through the day, with the latest pass measuring sustained winds of 185 mph. This is now at the very high end of any storm ever measured on the planet, and vying for the all-time record in the Atlantic basin. It is a picture-perfect example of a powerhouse hurricane, and there is nothing to stop it in the immediate future. Some models are testing their theoretical limits and suggesting winds of 200+ mph soon. Even if that doesn’t happen – and even if, as is likely, there is some weakening on Thursday/Friday – this is a dangerous monster of a storm.
The islands in the direct path (Barbuda, St. Barts, Sint Maarten, Anguilla, Tortola, St. John, others) and west toward much of the Caribbean face total devastation in any areas that suffer a direct hit tonight or tomorrow. Puerto Rico, Hispanola and Cuba are also in danger. Even without a direct hit the damage could be severe.
On the U.S. mainland the trends are not looking good. We’re still right on the edge of effective models, and there is a high degree of dispersion among the possible tracks. There is a weak and growing consensus that south Florida could (repeat: could) take a direct hit from a Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane on Saturday/Sunday. There is some chance of a brush with Cuba which would weaken the storm, but not enough to make it “safe.” There is some chance of a recurve to the north before it reaches Florida, but that is probably a <10% chance right now. There is some chance that the core of the storm slides south, into the Gulf of Mexico, but that would still bring a massive surge and damage to south Florida and the Keys, to say nothing of the impact in the Gulf itself. And the most likely outcome right now is a landfall somewhere in south Florida that rivals some combination of Wilma and Andrew.
A mandatory evacuation of the Florida Keys begins tomorrow. All of south Florida may see similar evacuation orders for coastal areas within a day or two. The NFL has already cancelled the Dolphins game in Miami on Sunday. Airports in Florida (MIA, FLL, RSW) will see significant cancellations and likely multi-day closures. And of course this says nothing about the potential human tragedy or broader economic disaster.
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