This is not exactly relevant to Chicago, but given the potential for airport disruption all over the country -- especially here, given United’s hub in Houston and Southwest’s presence all over Texas* -- I thought I’d send a quick note. Anyone in the region should pay close attention and follow any evacuation orders.
Harvey is currently offshore and still strengthening. This has turned into a serious situation that is going to endanger many lives and cause massive property destruction. Sustained winds are 110 mph with a minimum central pressure of 950 MB (28.05 inches), both well into Category 3 (major) hurricane territory. Conditions have been almost perfect for strengthening so far, and even if it levels off there may be little to stop it before a landfall on the Texas coast late tonight or early Saturday morning. As of now, the odds are better than even that Harvey will be a Category 3 (major) hurricane at landfall. If so that would be the first major hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. since Wilma in 2005.
The potential for catastrophic storm surge along the coast is a huge concern. NWS/NOAA is calling the threat to life and property “extreme” with near total coastal devastation from a 7-11 foot surge. And of course the wind damage from gusts in the 100-125 mph range is a major hazard as well.
Away from the coast the rainfall this storm could produce is incredible. Because the storm is moving very slowly – and because it may come close to stalling after landfall, as many Texas tropical storms do – the flood potential is off the charts. Most models are putting the multi-day rainfall totals in the 15-20 inch range for metro Houston, with totals between two and three feet closer to the coast (including Galveston). Even places as far as San Antonio and SW Louisiana could see 6-12 inches of rain. The precise strength/wind at landfall is hard to pinpoint, but this storm is coming ashore and the disastrous rainfall is all but assured.
* United already started waiving all change fees yesterday, and other airlines will likely follow suit. Systemwide delays and cancellations are still probable.
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