Winter Storm Watch -- late Thursday night through Friday

Well, winter continues to make up for lost time, and the biggest punch yet may be coming on Friday.

 

NWS has already posted a Winter Storm Watch for late Thursday night through Friday. This system could (see below) put down ~20-30+ consecutive hours of snow if everything comes together. And that is still a big “if” – there is plenty of time for this system to wobble 10, 20 or even 50 miles, which would make a massive difference in the snow accumulations. In the least-case scenario we would receive little snow – maybe 1-2” – but on the high side this could be a significant snow producer. Most models are beginning to focus on a range of 5-10” across the Chicago area. (This is also a similar set-up to the February 2015 storm that dropped 19” at ORD – I’m not saying that will happen again, but this situation does look prone to an upside surprise compared to the model projections. The snow will not be blinding in intensity, but with a front draped right across the area it sets up well for a steady, long-duration snow fall.)

 

For now most models have the axis of heavy snow running almost straight west-east through Chicago, but stay tuned because the details are still fuzzy. The first panel below points to high confidence (70-80%) of at least four inches of snow for the 48 hours ending at midnight Saturday (late Friday night). The second panel shows 30-50% odds of at least eight inches. Anything from 1-2” to a foot-plus is in play, but there is growing confidence of a significant (4-8”) snowfall and major disruptions to Friday travel plans. Plan now for flights, drive times, etc.

 

On the backside of the storm there could be some lingering light snow on Saturday before another, weaker system tracks through on Saturday night. It will be Sunday morning before the snow is clear of the area.

 

Expect an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning by this evening or early tomorrow morning. I will send a final update tomorrow afternoon with the latest guidance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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