Two quick updates.
I said yesterday that the week would be dry until Thursday, but that’s no longer true. A little bit of moisture (<0.05-0.15” of water equivalent) is going to “overrun” the cold air in place tonight. That’s only worth mentioning because of my statement yesterday and the fact that 1-2” of snow could accumulate late tonight into the early AM, with the potential to be just enough to screw up the roads for the morning commute.
Beyond that, the developing system on Thursday and Friday is still on track and worth watching. Some snow on Thursday looks likely, although amounts should be light. More snow – possibly several inches – looks likely on Friday.
From: Philip C. Ordway [mailto:pordway=anabaticllc.com@mail120.sea21.rsgsv.net] On Behalf Of Philip C. Ordway
Sent: Monday, February 05, 2018 8:46 AM
To: Philip C. Ordway <pordway@anabaticllc.com>
Subject: WWA snow and ugly PM commute
Don’t let the bright sunshine fool you – we’re under a Winter Weather Advisory for snow starting at noon and extending through midnight. A moderate, fast-moving system is going to tap just enough moisture to put down some snow. It’s drawing on very cold air in place this morning, which will fluff up the snow and make melting on roadways/sidewalks a problem. I would expect significant delays on the roads and at least moderate problems at the airports – snowfall rates from late afternoon through early evening could reach 1”/hour at times, which will drop visibilities to well under a mile. Plows will not be able to keep up with those rates, especially with the cold temps, and traffic is going to be ugly. So…if you need to get somewhere after 3pm today be sure to leave very, very early.
Flakes should fly by the early afternoon, with temps only in the teens. The heaviest snow will arrive late afternoon. Most areas should see 2-4 inches but a few spots – especially west of the city – could see 5-6+ inches.
The rest of the week looks cold (~8-12 degrees below average) but nothing like December/January’s cold blast. It will be dry tomorrow through Thursday but another snow producer could approach on Friday/Saturday.
By this time next week we’re going to be on the doorstep of a major pattern reversal. There are strong signs that we really only have ~10-12 days of “real” winter potential remaining this season, because by mid-February a mild pattern locks in that should take us into March. (Of course we can still get cold weather and snow in March, but by then the sun is much stronger, the cold is much gentler, and the snow cover rarely lasts more than a few days.)
NWS – Chicago Downtown
From: Philip C. Ordway [mailto:pordway=anabaticllc.com@mail74.atl11.rsgsv.net] On Behalf Of Philip C. Ordway
Sent: Friday, February 02, 2018 4:35 PM
To: Philip C. Ordway <pordway@anabaticllc.com>
Subject: cold then light snow
After a brutal stretch of cold in late December and early January, the average temperature for the month of January actually finished close to its normal level thanks to five days that broke into the 50s.
But the rollercoaster rolls on and we’re in the middle of a 10-14 day stretch of cold – nothing too barbaric (highs mostly in the 20s; no widespread lows <0) but well below average. This stretch is also going to feature several bouts of snow. There are no major storms on the horizon just yet but it wouldn’t take much, given the overall pattern, for a significant snow to spin up at some point over the next week.
Starting tonight we could see a dusting to maybe an inch. Snow will continue in bursts tomorrow and Sunday, with another 1-3 inches in some spots. Another 1-3 inches is possible on Monday night and Tuesday. That pattern of light, periodic snowfall could add up to 4-8” over the next week. Again, it’s early February and this is not a big deal, but given how little snow we’ve had it will stand out. Occasional but generally minor traffic and airport delays are also possible.
Speaking of snow, we’re still in a fairly remarkable snow drought. We have not had substantial snows since early December 2016. January + February 2017 was a record-setting period that was nearly snowless, and the current season has recorded less than 10” officially at ORD. Even if we get a half foot over the next week we’ll still be running well below average for the season.
On the flipside, happy anniversary! Today marks seven years since the (in)famous Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011. Officially we recorded 40 consecutive hours of snowfall, 21.2” of snow, a gust of 70 mph, and some awesome thundersnow that I’ll never forget. (We were also lucky that the ill-advised people driving home on LSD who got stuck and had to abandon their cars were able to be rescued by firefighters on snowmobiles.)
Beyond the next ~10 day cold spell the rollercoaster is likely to head back up. There is good reason to believe we’ll get an extended taste of “early spring” starting in mid-February and possibly lasting through the end of the month.
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