heavy rain

After a little shot of snow yesterday the thaw has resumed today, and even bigger changes loom tomorrow. 

We're under a flood watch starting tomorrow morning and running through Wednesday morning. The whole area is likely to receive 1-2 inches of rain, and certain areas could see 2-4 inches. Add another ~1/2" of melted snow, frozen ground, and dormant plant life, and you can see how there is some mild concern about flooding. If nothing else make sure your sump pump and downspouts are in working condition. 

The other piece of news that comes with all this moisture is much milder temperatures -- tomorrow and Tuesday are going to be in the high 50s to low 60s. The rain is going to come in waves and also include some lightning and thunder, so it's really going to feel like spring. 

Beyond that we're going to dip back down toward seasonal norms mid-week before warming up again next weekend (likely with another wet storm). Temps near normal to above normal should carry through the end of the month. 

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snow update

The snow storm has gone according to plan so far and is in its final quarter as far as accumulations go.*The Winter Storm Warning extends through 6pm but snow will taper before that. The frontal boundary is still “forcing” snow across a fairly narrow band as expected, although there will be breaks in the snow starting this afternoon.

 

• Noon reported snowfall totals since the snow began last night:
  • ORD 7.3”
  • MDW 6.8”
  • NWS (Romeoville) 6.7”
  • Naperville 7.0”
    • 9am totals:
      • ORD 5.9”
      • MDW 5.6”
      • Naperville 5.6”
• Snow will taper across the area from west to east during early/mid-afternoon. There is already a break in the snow across the northern suburbs but the snow remains moderate to heavy across most of the area.  From noon onward most areas will see 1-4” additional inches (lightest north, heaviest south). Far southern suburbs and NW Indiana might not get a break in the snow until after sunset.
• Snow will resurge tonight after midnight, with another 1-3 inches possible through the morning tomorrow.
• Saturday night could see another brief shot of snow with another 1-3” inches possible.
• Temps will remain 5-20 degrees below freezing so snow removal will be difficult.

 

Random fun facts 4u:

• If we get measurable snow tomorrow (all but assured) and after midnight on Sunday (likely) we would tie the all-time record for consecutive days with measurable snow at nine.
• Today’s sun angle is the same as it was on Halloween.
• Erie, PA has set its all-time season snow record with more than 150 inches!

 

* For the life of me I will never understand how or why people who don’t know the first thing about the weather and don’t even pay attention decide that they need to complain, whine and moan about weather forecasts. This forecast could not have gone much better. The storm potential was flagged a week ago; a Watch went up two days in advance; a Warning went up a day in advance; and the snow totals have come in exactly within the expected ranges. But the Internet is full of chirping crickets who would complain that “they got it wrong again” in any and all cases. And yes, you may now get off my lawn while we’re at it.

 

 

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From: Philip C. Ordway [mailto:pordway=anabaticllc.com@mail207.atl61.mcsv.net] On Behalf Of Philip C. Ordway
Sent: Thursday, February 08, 2018 6:56 AM
To: Philip C. Ordway <pordway@anabaticllc.com>
Subject: Winter Storm Warning

 

As expected we have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning that takes effect at 6pm tonight and runs through 9pm on Friday night. The conviction on this snow has been high and growing for several days, and the 27+ hour duration of the Winter Storm Warning itself is another sign of the potential impacts.

 

Some details and considerations:

 

• The entire area north of I-80 – including the entire city of Chicago and Cook, DuPage, Kane, Lake, and McHenry counties – is in the bull’s-eye for snow. This is still a tricky forecast (see below) but there is good reason to put the over-under on snow totals in that area in the 8-9” range. A few spots – especially far southern suburbs – could see totals closer to 2-6”, but there are far more people who are going to see totals in the 10-12” range. Everyone in the warned areas has at least a 15-20% chance of seeing more than a foot of snow. As I noted yesterday – and as the models have shown in the past few hours – this set up tends to surprise on the high side.*
• The cold air at the surface this morning is going to increase snow totals and hurt the snow removal efforts on the roadways. Temps are going to climb into the teens with a few flurries today before the main snow approaches toward sunset. The snowfall this evening will be light for most locations. Snow during the overnight hours will be moderate but could approach 1” per hour in some spots in the early hours of Friday.
• The Friday morning commute is going to be a problem. With several inches down and snow still accumulating the roads are going to be tough. School cancellations are possible. The airports are already cancelling hundreds of flights; neither airport is especially likely to close entirely (winds will be on the lighter side) but the impacts to flight schedules will still be severe.
• This is a “forced boundary” snow – a warm front is draped from west to east across the area, and the collision along the front of warmer/moist air with cold air is creating the snowfall. Just to the south of the front there will be almost no snow, and just north of the main snow band there will be almost no snow. The area of heavy snow will be at least 200 miles wide from west to east but only ~30-50 miles from south to north. If the track were to wobble by just a few dozen miles it would mean the difference of 2 inches versus 12 inches. The “bust potential” is low – heavy snow is very likely in the area – but there is bust potential for specific areas (especially south) since the details across a 10-20 mile corridor are difficult to pin down. If the storm does miss it looks more likely to be on the northern side (i.e., the northern half of the city and suburbs toward the Wisconsin line have the highest odds of heavy snow).

 

I will send an update this afternoon if anything changes, but at this point I wouldn’t count on it.

 

* As an aside, I thought I took a screenshot of yesterday’s NWS probabilistic snowfall projections but somehow I lost it. In any case, last night the “chance of snowfall >12” for Chicago Downtown (or anywhere else in the region) was literally show at zero. This morning it’s at 25%. That is a painful failure.

 

 

 

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Winter Storm Warning

As expected we have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning that takes effect at 6pm tonight and runs through 9pm on Friday night. The conviction on this snow has been high and growing for several days, and the 27+ hour duration of the Winter Storm Warning itself is another sign of the potential impacts.

 

Some details and considerations:

 

• The entire area north of I-80 – including the entire city of Chicago and Cook, DuPage, Kane, Lake, and McHenry counties – is in the bull’s-eye for snow. This is still a tricky forecast (see below) but there is good reason to put the over-under on snow totals in that area in the 8-9” range. A few spots – especially far southern suburbs – could see totals closer to 2-6”, but there are far more people who are going to see totals in the 10-12” range. Everyone in the warned areas has at least a 15-20% chance of seeing more than a foot of snow. As I noted yesterday – and as the models have shown in the past few hours – this set up tends to surprise on the high side.*
• The cold air at the surface this morning is going to increase snow totals and hurt the snow removal efforts on the roadways. Temps are going to climb into the teens with a few flurries today before the main snow approaches toward sunset. The snowfall this evening will be light for most locations. Snow during the overnight hours will be moderate but could approach 1” per hour in some spots in the early hours of Friday.
• The Friday morning commute is going to be a problem. With several inches down and snow still accumulating the roads are going to be tough. School cancellations are possible. The airports are already cancelling hundreds of flights; neither airport is especially likely to close entirely (winds will be on the lighter side) but the impacts to flight schedules will still be severe.
• This is a “forced boundary” snow – a warm front is draped from west to east across the area, and the collision along the front of warmer/moist air with cold air is creating the snowfall. Just to the south of the front there will be almost no snow, and just north of the main snow band there will be almost no snow. The area of heavy snow will be at least 200 miles wide from west to east but only ~30-50 miles from south to north. If the track were to wobble by just a few dozen miles it would mean the difference of 2 inches versus 12 inches. The “bust potential” is low – heavy snow is very likely in the area – but there is bust potential for specific areas (especially south) since the details across a 10-20 mile corridor are difficult to pin down. If the storm does miss it looks more likely to be on the northern side (i.e., the northern half of the city and suburbs toward the Wisconsin line have the highest odds of heavy snow).

 

I will send an update this afternoon if anything changes, but at this point I wouldn’t count on it.

 

* As an aside, I thought I took a screenshot of yesterday’s NWS probabilistic snowfall projections but somehow I lost it. In any case, last night the “chance of snowfall >12” for Chicago Downtown (or anywhere else in the region) was literally show at zero. This morning it’s at 25%. That is a painful failure.

 

 

 

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Winter Storm Watch -- late Thursday night through Friday

Well, winter continues to make up for lost time, and the biggest punch yet may be coming on Friday.

 

NWS has already posted a Winter Storm Watch for late Thursday night through Friday. This system could (see below) put down ~20-30+ consecutive hours of snow if everything comes together. And that is still a big “if” – there is plenty of time for this system to wobble 10, 20 or even 50 miles, which would make a massive difference in the snow accumulations. In the least-case scenario we would receive little snow – maybe 1-2” – but on the high side this could be a significant snow producer. Most models are beginning to focus on a range of 5-10” across the Chicago area. (This is also a similar set-up to the February 2015 storm that dropped 19” at ORD – I’m not saying that will happen again, but this situation does look prone to an upside surprise compared to the model projections. The snow will not be blinding in intensity, but with a front draped right across the area it sets up well for a steady, long-duration snow fall.)

 

For now most models have the axis of heavy snow running almost straight west-east through Chicago, but stay tuned because the details are still fuzzy. The first panel below points to high confidence (70-80%) of at least four inches of snow for the 48 hours ending at midnight Saturday (late Friday night). The second panel shows 30-50% odds of at least eight inches. Anything from 1-2” to a foot-plus is in play, but there is growing confidence of a significant (4-8”) snowfall and major disruptions to Friday travel plans. Plan now for flights, drive times, etc.

 

On the backside of the storm there could be some lingering light snow on Saturday before another, weaker system tracks through on Saturday night. It will be Sunday morning before the snow is clear of the area.

 

Expect an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning by this evening or early tomorrow morning. I will send a final update tomorrow afternoon with the latest guidance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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RE: WWA snow and ugly PM commute

Two quick updates.

 

I said yesterday that the week would be dry until Thursday, but that’s no longer true. A little bit of moisture (<0.05-0.15” of water equivalent) is going to “overrun” the cold air in place tonight. That’s only worth mentioning because of my statement yesterday and the fact that 1-2” of snow could accumulate late tonight into the early AM, with the potential to be just enough to screw up the roads for the morning commute.

 

Beyond that, the developing system on Thursday and Friday is still on track and worth watching. Some snow on Thursday looks likely, although amounts should be light. More snow – possibly several inches – looks likely on Friday.

 

 

From: Philip C. Ordway [mailto:pordway=anabaticllc.com@mail120.sea21.rsgsv.net] On Behalf Of Philip C. Ordway
Sent: Monday, February 05, 2018 8:46 AM
To: Philip C. Ordway <pordway@anabaticllc.com>
Subject: WWA snow and ugly PM commute

 

Don’t let the bright sunshine fool you – we’re under a Winter Weather Advisory for snow starting at noon and extending through midnight. A moderate, fast-moving system is going to tap just enough moisture to put down some snow. It’s drawing on very cold air in place this morning, which will fluff up the snow and make melting on roadways/sidewalks a problem. I would expect significant delays on the roads and at least moderate problems at the airports – snowfall rates from late afternoon through early evening could reach 1”/hour at times, which will drop visibilities to well under a mile. Plows will not be able to keep up with those rates, especially with the cold temps, and traffic is going to be ugly. So…if you need to get somewhere after 3pm today be sure to leave very, very early.

 

Flakes should fly by the early afternoon, with temps only in the teens. The heaviest snow will arrive late afternoon. Most areas should see 2-4 inches but a few spots – especially west of the city – could see 5-6+ inches.

 

The rest of the week looks cold (~8-12 degrees below average) but nothing like December/January’s cold blast. It will be dry tomorrow through Thursday but another snow producer could approach on Friday/Saturday.

 

By this time next week we’re going to be on the doorstep of a major pattern reversal. There are strong signs that we really only have ~10-12 days of “real” winter potential remaining this season, because by mid-February a mild pattern locks in that should take us into March. (Of course we can still get cold weather and snow in March, but by then the sun is much stronger, the cold is much gentler, and the snow cover rarely lasts more than a few days.)

 

 

NWS – Chicago Downtown

 

 

 

 

From: Philip C. Ordway [mailto:pordway=anabaticllc.com@mail74.atl11.rsgsv.net] On Behalf Of Philip C. Ordway
Sent: Friday, February 02, 2018 4:35 PM
To: Philip C. Ordway <pordway@anabaticllc.com>
Subject: cold then light snow

 

After a brutal stretch of cold in late December and early January, the average temperature for the month of January actually finished close to its normal level thanks to five days that broke into the 50s.

 

But the rollercoaster rolls on and we’re in the middle of a 10-14 day stretch of cold – nothing too barbaric (highs mostly in the 20s; no widespread lows <0) but well below average. This stretch is also going to feature several bouts of snow. There are no major storms on the horizon just yet but it wouldn’t take much, given the overall pattern, for a significant snow to spin up at some point over the next week.

 

Starting tonight we could see a dusting to maybe an inch. Snow will continue in bursts tomorrow and Sunday, with another 1-3 inches in some spots. Another 1-3 inches is possible on Monday night and Tuesday. That pattern of light, periodic snowfall could add up to 4-8” over the next week. Again, it’s early February and this is not a big deal, but given how little snow we’ve had it will stand out. Occasional but generally minor traffic and airport delays are also possible.

 

Speaking of snow, we’re still in a fairly remarkable snow drought. We have not had substantial snows since early December 2016. January + February 2017 was a record-setting period that was nearly snowless, and the current season has recorded less than 10” officially at ORD. Even if we get a half foot over the next week we’ll still be running well below average for the season.

 

On the flipside, happy anniversary! Today marks seven years since the (in)famous Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011. Officially we recorded 40 consecutive hours of snowfall, 21.2” of snow, a gust of 70 mph, and some awesome thundersnow that I’ll never forget. (We were also lucky that the ill-advised people driving home on LSD who got stuck and had to abandon their cars were able to be rescued by firefighters on snowmobiles.)

 

Beyond the next ~10 day cold spell the rollercoaster is likely to head back up. There is good reason to believe we’ll get an extended taste of “early spring” starting in mid-February and possibly lasting through the end of the month.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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WWA snow and ugly PM commute

Don’t let the bright sunshine fool you – we’re under a Winter Weather Advisory for snow starting at noon and extending through midnight. A moderate, fast-moving system is going to tap just enough moisture to put down some snow. It’s drawing on very cold air in place this morning, which will fluff up the snow and make melting on roadways/sidewalks a problem. I would expect significant delays on the roads and at least moderate problems at the airports – snowfall rates from late afternoon through early evening could reach 1”/hour at times, which will drop visibilities to well under a mile. Plows will not be able to keep up with those rates, especially with the cold temps, and traffic is going to be ugly. So…if you need to get somewhere after 3pm today be sure to leave very, very early.

 

Flakes should fly by the early afternoon, with temps only in the teens. The heaviest snow will arrive late afternoon. Most areas should see 2-4 inches but a few spots – especially west of the city – could see 5-6+ inches.

 

The rest of the week looks cold (~8-12 degrees below average) but nothing like December/January’s cold blast. It will be dry tomorrow through Thursday but another snow producer could approach on Friday/Saturday.

 

By this time next week we’re going to be on the doorstep of a major pattern reversal. There are strong signs that we really only have ~10-12 days of “real” winter potential remaining this season, because by mid-February a mild pattern locks in that should take us into March. (Of course we can still get cold weather and snow in March, but by then the sun is much stronger, the cold is much gentler, and the snow cover rarely lasts more than a few days.)

 

 

NWS – Chicago Downtown

 

 

 

 

From: Philip C. Ordway [mailto:pordway=anabaticllc.com@mail74.atl11.rsgsv.net] On Behalf Of Philip C. Ordway
Sent: Friday, February 02, 2018 4:35 PM
To: Philip C. Ordway <pordway@anabaticllc.com>
Subject: cold then light snow

 

After a brutal stretch of cold in late December and early January, the average temperature for the month of January actually finished close to its normal level thanks to five days that broke into the 50s.

 

But the rollercoaster rolls on and we’re in the middle of a 10-14 day stretch of cold – nothing too barbaric (highs mostly in the 20s; no widespread lows <0) but well below average. This stretch is also going to feature several bouts of snow. There are no major storms on the horizon just yet but it wouldn’t take much, given the overall pattern, for a significant snow to spin up at some point over the next week.

 

Starting tonight we could see a dusting to maybe an inch. Snow will continue in bursts tomorrow and Sunday, with another 1-3 inches in some spots. Another 1-3 inches is possible on Monday night and Tuesday. That pattern of light, periodic snowfall could add up to 4-8” over the next week. Again, it’s early February and this is not a big deal, but given how little snow we’ve had it will stand out. Occasional but generally minor traffic and airport delays are also possible.

 

Speaking of snow, we’re still in a fairly remarkable snow drought. We have not had substantial snows since early December 2016. January + February 2017 was a record-setting period that was nearly snowless, and the current season has recorded less than 10” officially at ORD. Even if we get a half foot over the next week we’ll still be running well below average for the season.

 

On the flipside, happy anniversary! Today marks seven years since the (in)famous Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011. Officially we recorded 40 consecutive hours of snowfall, 21.2” of snow, a gust of 70 mph, and some awesome thundersnow that I’ll never forget. (We were also lucky that the ill-advised people driving home on LSD who got stuck and had to abandon their cars were able to be rescued by firefighters on snowmobiles.)

 

Beyond the next ~10 day cold spell the rollercoaster is likely to head back up. There is good reason to believe we’ll get an extended taste of “early spring” starting in mid-February and possibly lasting through the end of the month.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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cold then light snow

After a brutal stretch of cold in late December and early January, the average temperature for the month of January actually finished close to its normal level thanks to five days that broke into the 50s.

 

But the rollercoaster rolls on and we’re in the middle of a 10-14 day stretch of cold – nothing too barbaric (highs mostly in the 20s; no widespread lows <0) but well below average. This stretch is also going to feature several bouts of snow. There are no major storms on the horizon just yet but it wouldn’t take much, given the overall pattern, for a significant snow to spin up at some point over the next week.

 

Starting tonight we could see a dusting to maybe an inch. Snow will continue in bursts tomorrow and Sunday, with another 1-3 inches in some spots. Another 1-3 inches is possible on Monday night and Tuesday. That pattern of light, periodic snowfall could add up to 4-8” over the next week. Again, it’s early February and this is not a big deal, but given how little snow we’ve had it will stand out. Occasional but generally minor traffic and airport delays are also possible.

 

Speaking of snow, we’re still in a fairly remarkable snow drought. We have not had substantial snows since early December 2016. January + February 2017 was a record-setting period that was nearly snowless, and the current season has recorded less than 10” officially at ORD. Even if we get a half foot over the next week we’ll still be running well below average for the season.

 

On the flipside, happy anniversary! Today marks seven years since the (in)famous Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011. Officially we recorded 40 consecutive hours of snowfall, 21.2” of snow, a gust of 70 mph, and some awesome thundersnow that I’ll never forget. (We were also lucky that the ill-advised people driving home on LSD who got stuck and had to abandon their cars were able to be rescued by firefighters on snowmobiles.)

 

Beyond the next ~10 day cold spell the rollercoaster is likely to head back up. There is good reason to believe we’ll get an extended taste of “early spring” starting in mid-February and possibly lasting through the end of the month.

 

 

 

 

 

 

SUBSCRIBE

 

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