Chicago Severe Weather Updates: 2016

Saturday, December 17, 2016

One more weather update

After months on end of mild, boring weather we've certainly been making up for it lately. Hopefully this is the last time you'll hear from me for at least a few weeks -- starting with a bitter Monday morning we will slowly warm up, with near- or above-normal temps likely all the way through the end of the month.

A couple of inches of snow last night has moved on and today through sunset should be mostly dry. There could be some freezing drizzle and there have been reports of icy roads so exercise caution. And snow reemerges in the 4-7pm range. Another 2-4" is likely tonight (less south of I-80, more toward Wisconsin line)) along with howling winds that will cause blowing and drifting. Visibility could be briefly below 1/4 of a mile with poor road conditions. Officially we're under a winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow as well as a wind chill advisory.

And temps are going to plummet. The high tomorrow (Sunday) will be at 12:01 AM and by daybreak we'll be near zero and still falling. Daytime temps are unlikely to break zero. Overnight into Sunday night and Monday morning we could hit -10 to -15F which could set a record (see below). And these are all actual air temps. The wind will be blowing 5-15 mph so it will feel colder, but wind chill is bogus and please don't confuse the too. If you'd like my full rant as to why wind chill is bogus please email me.

To show the fluky but powerful nature of these arctic outbreaks, here are the record low temps for each date. 1983 was a barbarically cold month so these comparisons are impressive.

Dec. 17: -1 (1951)
Dec. 18: -11 (1983)
Dec. 19: -14 (1983)

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Thursday, December 15, 2016

Cold, then snow/sleet, then cold, then pattern flip?

We bottomed out officially at O’Hare at -2F this morning. We didn’t set a record (-12F in 1901) but yesterday was the earliest high temp <10F in 21 years. So this is very unusual even if not actually record-breaking.

Temps are going to be stuck in the single digits today, but after sunset the winds will swing around to the south in advance of our storm and temps will actually rise throughout the night. Tomorrow (Friday) will see temps climbing toward the low/mid 20s, but snow moves in during the afternoon. Despite some absurd numbers I’ve seen floating around, there is not much threat for more than a few inches of snow tomorrow. But the timing (afternoon/evening rush on a Friday in December) combined with very cold temps/pavement could make for a traffic and airport nightmare. We’ve seen this before and it usually doesn’t end well.

Light snow is likely overnight Friday into Saturday as temps continue to climb. The storm total through Saturday looks to be about 3-4” but I would put at least a 2” margin of error on that. We are right on the edge of a big winter storm with very heavy snow likely just to our north in southern Wisconsin and freezing rain or sleet likely just to our south. It doesn’t take much of a shift to have a dramatic impact on the result.

By Saturday noon we could well top 32F for the first time in days, but the cost will be a threat of some freezing rain and/or sleet. Again, keep an eye on travel problems. Hopefully roads will be well treated, but any ice accumulations could obviously pose a big problem.

Temps will then plunge again on Saturday night, approaching or falling below 0F by daybreak Sunday. The daytime high on Sunday might struggle to break zero, and there is some chance we’ll set the record for the coldest Bears home game on record.

Beyond that, things look much milder in the 10-14 day range. We should get back to season normal toward the middle of next week and there don’t appear to be any more arctic outbreaks through Christmas and the week leading up to New Year’s Day. We could even average just above normal for that period.

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Monday, December 12, 2016

Light snow, then bitter cold, then more snow?

We’re not breaking any records but we are certainly locked in to an unusually cold and snowy winter pattern.

· A cold front is approaching the area tonight and it will bring a dose of severe cold.

o First, we could see a brief burst of snow tonight that might accumulate an inch or so in some places (see below for one model’s projection). Don’t be shocked to wake up to a covering on untreated surfaces tomorrow morning.

· Temps will peak in the teens tomorrow and fall through the afternoon. We’ll be in the single-digits to near zero tomorrow night and likely at or below zero Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. Thursday’s high will struggle to make it out of single-digits.

· Friday and Saturday will “warm up” to the 20s, but the price will be a chance of another significant snow. Stay tuned for details but the Friday/Saturday period looks very promising for significant accumulating snow across the Chicago area.

· A second cold surge arrives Sunday. It doesn’t look quite as cold in Chicago as the Wednesday-Thursday variety, but we’ll see.

· To skip ahead, I’d reiterate two points.

o The reliability of long-range forecasts (beyond 10-14 days) is very, very low. The best indicators we have are the correlations to El Niño/La Niña conditions, and this year we essentially have neither.

o Really strong, persistent patters -- like the mild, sunny and dry pattern most of eastern CONUS had in the fall and the cold, snowy one now underway – are prone to sharp “flips.” Yes, there are short- and medium-range feedback loops, but there is nothing ensuring a cold winter just as there is nothing preventing us from a mild January/February.

Now for the fun facts everyone has been waiting for.

· Fun fact! Our season-to-date snow total officially at ORD is already over 14 inches and the highest since the barbaric winter of 1978-79.

· Fun fact! Our snow totals officially at ORD (6.4” last week and 7.8” this weekend) make this only the fourth time on record that Chicago has had two storms of >6” in the first two weeks of December. The most recent occasion was 2000 -- a month that saw a crazy total of 41.3” at MDW and 30.9” at ORD -- and the other two were 1978 and 1934. And no, none of those years are good analogs if you like mild winters!

· Fun fact! About 1 in 8 Americans will more than likely experience a subzero temp this week.

· Fun fact! The broadly-defined area around Chicago has about a 40% chance of a White Christmas (at least 1” of snow cover at 6am on the 25^th) based on historical experience. (I’d put our odds this year a little higher.)

· Fun fact! Most people know that the solstice (December 21^st at 4:44 AM CST this year) is the shortest day of the year (i.e., the day with the least amount of possible daylight, with the sun’s least direct rays in the northern hemisphere and the most direct rays over the Tropic of Capricorn). But because of the oddities of the earth’s elliptical orbit and the difference between solar noon and the time we keep on our clocks, the earliest sunset of the year has already passed (last week on December 8^th, to be specific). We’ve already pushed the sunset back by a minute or so, and from here until June the sunset will get later each day. (For related reasons the sunrise will get later even beyond the solstice. This season the latest sunrise will be January 3, 2017.)

Saturday, December 10, 2016

Re: Winter Storm Warning

Last update as the storm arrives and snow is overspreading the region. It arrived a little ahead of schedule and roads are already covered in the western and some northern burbs. The models continue to take totals up and this storm looks more impressive by the hour. Snowfall will be more or less continuous for the next 24 hours with only a short break or two. I would take the over on 6" at both airports and it would not be a surprise to see a few spots hit 12".

On Dec 10, 2016, at 11:51 AM, Philip C. Ordway <pordway@anabaticllc.com> wrote:

A little odd -- NWS took down the Watch overnight in favor of just a Winter Weather Advisory. But now we're back to a full Warning, and the snow totals haven't changed much. Best guess for totals through tomorrow night is 8-12" northern suburbs, 6-10" western burbs, and 3-6" southern burbs and Loop. There could be a brief break in the snowfall tomorrow which would drop totals by an inch or two.

Snow will start very late afternoon into early evening. It should be light until after midnight. The heaviest snowfall rates are likely tomorrow morning. After a potential break there could be more heavy snow tomorrow afternoon. Road conditions could be dicey at various points and airport delays will be substantial.

And if we get more than 6" officially at ORD that would be only the fourth time since official records began in 1884 that we've had two snowfalls of at least 6" in the first two weeks of December. The most recent occurrence was in 2000.

The arctic outbreak also looks on track for next week. After a relatively tranquil Monday and Tuesday temps will plunge on Wednesday and Thursday. Daytime highs will struggle into the teens and overnight lows will likely be subzero in many locations.
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Winter Storm Warning

A little odd -- NWS took down the Watch overnight in favor of just a Winter Weather Advisory. But now we're back to a full Warning, and the snow totals haven't changed much. Best guess for totals through tomorrow night is 8-12" northern suburbs, 6-10" western burbs, and 3-6" southern burbs and Loop. There could be a brief break in the snowfall tomorrow which would drop totals by an inch or two.

Snow will start very late afternoon into early evening. It should be light until after midnight. The heaviest snowfall rates are likely tomorrow morning. After a potential break there could be more heavy snow tomorrow afternoon. Road conditions could be dicey at various points and airport delays will be substantial.

And if we get more than 6" officially at ORD that would be only the fourth time since official records began in 1884 that we've had two snowfalls of at least 6" in the first two weeks of December. The most recent occurrence was in 2000.

The arctic outbreak also looks on track for next week. After a relatively tranquil Monday and Tuesday temps will plunge on Wednesday and Thursday. Daytime highs will struggle into the teens and overnight lows will likely be subzero in many locations.
This email is confidential and intended only for the recipient(s). If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender at compliance@anabaticllc.com and delete this message and any attachments. This message is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy any financial instruments. Please see the full disclaimer at www.anabaticllc.com.

Friday, December 9, 2016

Winter Storm Watch -- heavy snow

NWS just issued a Winter Storm Watch for the entire area beginning tomorrow (Saturday) evening and running through Sunday night. It looks increasingly likely that we’re going to have an extended period of nearly continuous snow, and the totals could get pretty impressive. As we saw last weekend there is no such thing as certainty, but as things stand right now I wouldn’t be surprised to see widespread storm totals in the 4-12” range across the entire area (including the Loop and lakefront). As shown below the northern suburbs are favored for heavier amounts, with a mix possible south of I-80 and generally lighter amounts as you go south.

Expect significant travel disruptions, especially at the airports. The good news is that most or all of Saturday should be OK before the core of the snow moves in after sunset.

I would also expect an upgrade to a full Winter Storm Warning later today or early tomorrow morning. As the models refine their guidance for snowfall totals and timing I will also send at least one update.

Thursday, December 8, 2016

early look at snowy, cold pattern

So yes, last weekend’s snow in the western suburbs was a surprise.* That said, the coming 7-10 days have a much more pronounced pattern. The details are sketchy at this distance but it is going to be snowy and it is going to be cold.

Some flurries or light snow today will give way to slightly better conditions tomorrow, but temps will struggle to get out of the 20s or low 30s at any point. Outdoor hockey rinks will have ideal conditions to get established for the season.

On Saturday afternoon/evening we’ll have the first of several chances at snow. Again, details are tough at this point, but a few inches of snow is certainly possible through Sunday morning.

On Sunday night and potentially into Monday morning it gets even more interesting. One model (and the good one, no less) has picked up a potentially major snow storm. That model is an outlier and it is very early, but we’ll have to watch this one closely.

Either way, the odds strongly favor at least a few inches of weekend snow followed by a blast of bitterly cold air in the middle of next week. It looks likely that we’ll go near or below zero at night on one or two occasions next week, with some marginal relief after that. The good news is that the mid-range forecast (i.e., 2-3 weeks) shows a milder pattern coming back into control. But for now winter is really locked in for at least the next 10-14 days.

TSkillz/WGN:

* The snow that fell on Sunday was a surprise to me and most forecasters/models. The available moisture looked limited to 0.10-0.20 inches but in reality the storm pulled in 0.5 to as much as 0.7 inches in a few spots. That is a massive difference for a storm like that, although the point should not be lost that a third to a half an inch of rain really isn’t a lot and would have gone unnoticed had it fallen as rain. It’s also worth noting that the first snow system of any season often produces a perceived “bust” because the warm ground limits accumulations even if everything else verifies in the atmosphere. In any case, the storm’s lift was also more impressive than expected, enabling snowfall rates that overwhelmed the very warm ground and relatively mild surface temps that were at or above freezing. The precip also persisted for several hours longer than anticipated, allowing the snow to really pile up in a few place. And this was also one for the record books – we had had only a trace of snow coming into this storm, and the 6.4” at ORD and 5.5” at MDW set the record for the biggest-ever first measurable snowfall of the year. So this was a unique storm to say the least. The snow did not, however, accumulate meaningfully in the city near Lake Michigan. So while people in the western suburbs probably see this is as blown forecast, that’s only partially accurate. The forecast did fail to project the moisture content, but that happens – nothing is certain. Given the other variables involved (and the verified result in the city/lakeshore areas), I would view this as a moderate disappointment. If the odds – across the whole area -- called for an 80% chance of little/no accumulation, that means that 20% of the time (or over 20% of the area) there would in fact be meaningful snow. So even though I wish the forecast had been better and more helpful than it was, that is life – situations like this are going to happen.

Sunday, December 4, 2016

Snow

We are in the heaviest snow bands now. Biggest problem is low visibility -- below 1/4 mile in many places. Airport delays will pile up. Side roads may have a covering but main roads will remain wet and slushy. Ground is covered in many suburbs with 1/2" to 1" but I noticed it is barely sticking at Soldier Field. In any case the snow will move out by sunset. Expect another 1/2" to 1" in "hardest hit" areas. (Exception would be way out in Dekalb where snow is legit and NWS upgraded to WSW.)
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Saturday, December 3, 2016

First snow

We have only had a trace of snow so far this season but that looks likely to change. It has also been exceptionally mild but that is also in the rear view mirror.

Tomorrow (Sunday) morning and area of snow will arrive and persist through the early to middle part of the afternoon. Air temps at the surface and the ground itself will be well above freezing so snow should melt quickly if not on contact. Official accumulations may reach a half inch to an inch in western areas but the roads will likely just be wet. Areas in the city will likely see no accumulations except on a few grassy spots.

So this is the definition of a non-event but since it is the first snow of the season and since I've seen some breathless "we're going to get 2 inches of snow!" comments, I thought I would send something.

Also, a warmup on Monday into the mid/upper 40s will he short lived. On Wednesday we'll sink below normal for the first time in a long, long time. Most of the following week will be cold. Nothing unusual for December but a big change from what we've had lately.

Two more chances for light snow will have to be watched midweek and next weekend.
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Thursday, October 6, 2016

Hurricane Matthew

Since there are a few new emails on the list and it has been months since anything has happened here, I’ll take this chance to answer some of the questions I’ve been getting about Hurricane Matthew. This is turning into a very serious situation for Florida – easily one of its most dangerous and costly hurricane threats in modern history.

· Matthew is currently a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 140 mph. Gusts have been measured over 160 mph. Those winds will do catastrophic damage if they don’t stay offshore (see below). Anyone near the coast should not mess around with this hurricane.

o A Category 4 hurricane making landfall is very rare. (One has never been recorded in the section of Florida where this storm is headed.) If the storm makes landfall at this strength it would go down as one of the 20 strongest landfalling hurricanes ever seen in the U.S. and likely one of the 5-10 costliest (into the tens-of-billions range). The current minimum central pressure of 938 mb is extreme and already puts it in the all-time ranks alongside storms like Hurricanes Charley and Hugo.

· Matthew’s overall track is pretty well set now, but the details will be all important and are almost impossible to pinpoint in advance. The difference of 5-10 miles (on a storm that is ~700 miles wide with hurricane-force winds in a ~65 mile radius) could mean some damage up to total destruction.

o Matthew will approach the east coast of Florida tonight and make landfall (or come very close to it), likely somewhere north of West Palm Beach to near Jacksonville. It could grind along the entire east coast of Florida.

§ Jacksonville in particular is looking very vulnerable to the surge. The local NWS office in conjunction with NHC is calling for “catastrophic damage” in a “worst-case scenario” for costal areas

o If the storm wobbles just 10-20 miles to the west, the core of the strongest winds will cause heavy damage.

§ The latest run of a popular model has again taken the storm west, with a major Cat. 4 hurricane making direct landfall into Brevard County. Let’s hope that is wrong. Yes, the models got it mostly wrong earlier this week when most had it staying well east over open water. Now we’re in much different circumstances. If the track can stay just a few miles east it will make a huge difference. But it is not looking good.

o Even if the eye stays slightly out to sea, areas along the coast to several dozen miles inland will see hurricane-force winds (≥100+ mph very easily) and significant structural damage.

o Coastal areas will see a storm surge of 3-6+ feet.

o Most areas will see 4-12+ inches of rain.

· It has been over a decade since a significant hurricane hit Florida (an unprecedented stretch in recorded history).

· Dangerous hurricane or near-hurricane conditions will continue into Friday and Saturday for the Georgia and South Carolina coasts.

· Matthew made end up making a loop, doubling back on itself toward the south, off the SC coast.

Sunday, July 24, 2016

Severe -- Cook

Cook County is under a severe thunderstorm warning. High winds have been detected by radar. Flooding rain (on top of yesterday's deluge) and lightning are also a threat.

Non-severe storms will impact most of the rest of the area for the next few hours before clearing. Tomorrow will be hot but with some relief -- the near-record dewpoints of the past few days will be gone.

Saturday, July 23, 2016

More storms

I held off on an email about the first round of storms -- most were below severe limits and only part of the area was affected. Bad call on my part. There wasn't a drop at my house but I just saw a report of well over 4" from a rain gauge in Winnetka. The Edens is closed and the airports are backed up.

And now more storms are approaching. The whole area is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and a round of warned storms is approaching Dekalb. Strong to severe storms will affect most of the area through 11:30 or so. Flooding could become a real problem in areas already hit once today.

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Severe storms

In this incredible airmass -- it is almost 8:00pm with a 91-degree temp and 78 dewpoint!! -- severe storms are approaching from the north. Lake and McHenry are severe warned right now and the rest are under a watch. Storms could weaken but are likely to make it through the area mostly intact. Wind damage and flooding are the primary threats. Storms will be active now through 10-11pm tonight.

The heat continues tomorrow and through most of the weekend.

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Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Some storms then excessive heat watch

Occasional strong (but likely non-severe) storms are possible tomorrow morning and throughout the day. Each of the next few days has a chance of storms.

And it is going to get hot. Nothing record-breaking but definitely the hottest here since 2012. Temps Thursday and Friday will likely hit the mid-/upper-90s with a few spots probably hitting 100. With high dewpoints the heat index with peak around 105-115. Saturday will be hot too before things moderate Sunday and next week.
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Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Severe warning south, marginal storms elsewhere

A line of severe warned storms with confirmed 65 mph gusts is moving through Will and far southern Cook. The line extends north through the entire area but is below severe levels. The airport delays are really mounting, though.

Expect storms through 8:00-9:00 for most areas.

Dry tomorrow and Friday. Triple digit heat possible here or nearby next week.

This email is confidential and intended only for the recipient(s). Copying, distributing or otherwise using this information is prohibited if you are not the intended recipient. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender at compliance@anabaticllc.com and delete this message and any attachments. This message is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy any financial instruments. Offering documents and supporting documentation are available upon request. There can be no assurance that Anabatic Investment Partners LLC will achieve results comparable to those presented in this email and the information contained herein. Past or projected performance is not indicative of future results. The products described may not be eligible for sale in all countries and should be sold only to qualified investors. The financial instruments discussed in this document may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own investment decisions.

Wednesday, July 6, 2016

severe tstorm threat Thursday

The storms that moved through last night were likely the opening act for even more significant storms tomorrow (Thursday) as intense heat builds to our south and west and strong/severe storms rotate around the periphery.

(As a sidenote, the set up last night wasn’t that impressive, the storms themselves were very marginally over the severe threshold, and they occurred in the middle of the night – hence the lack of emails/updates.)

The entire Chicago area has been upgraded to “Enhanced” risk for Thursday. Storms could emerge during the day but the prime time will be 6pm to midnight. It will be hot with plenty of available moisture, so heavy rainfall will also be an issue. NWS is calling the situation “complex and uncertain” with the potential for widespread damaging winds. It certainly bears watching.

The rest of today (Wednesday) looks hot but mostly dry, with only a slight chance of a stray thunderstorm.

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Posts/Archives updated

The blog stop accepting emailed posts back in January/February, but I've finally got it fixed and (hopefully) all of the emailed updates have now been posted to archives (look for a forwarded email/post and ignore the date on the blog post).

Fwd: tornado watch likely

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Jun 22, 2016 at 4:50 PM
Subject: tornado watch likely
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>

[Note: the current storms in the area are producing some lightning and brief heavy rain, but they are NOT severe and NOT the potentially severe storms that could arrive this evening.]

SPC has put the entire region at 95% likelihood of a tornado watch within the hour. I would expect it to be issued any moment. Excerpts of the MSD are below. There is certainly plenty of spin in the air (see below) so any severe storms that do develop could easily produce a tornado.

The bad news, beyond the helicity, is the rapid destabilization of the atmosphere. As expected, warm moist air is flooding into the lower part of the atmosphere and it will sound ascend into newly formed storms. The CAPE (a measure of convective potential available energy) has jumped to >2,000 joules per kg -- well into severe territory.

The good news is that the heart of the severe and tornado threat remains just to the west of Chicago. Let's hope that any destructive storms that do develop stay over undeveloped areas. The exact frontal boundary will determine the specifics, which are impossible to pinpoint inside of 25-50 miles.

The most likely timing for severe storms in the Chicago area is 7-10pm. A couple of models are putting one or two discrete supercells in the area around 8:00, but such precision is tricky at best.

Not that it needs to be said, but the airports are obviously going to be a mess.

And again, the current NWS/SPC probabilities are 10% for a tornado within 25 miles of any point in the Chicago area, 45% chance of damaging winds, and a 30% chance of >1" hail. Those are meaningful chances -- and I would take the over on all three -- but they are far from certainties. This is also your daily reminder than if a storm produces severe weather in Schaumburg or Oak Park but not directly over your condo in River North, nobody cares and you're missing the point -- a severe storm still occurred in the forecast area.

https://twitter.com/alexhabe/status/745687167888986113

https://twitter.com/Patattack71/status/745717606514991104

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1020     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0338 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016       AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...FAR SRN WI...NRN INTO CNTRL IL...NW IND       CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY        VALID 222038Z - 222215Z       PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT       SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 23Z.     THESE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH TORNADOES...DAMAGING     WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A TORNADO     WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR FOR PORTIONS OF THE     MCD AREA.       DISCUSSION...CONVECTION DURING MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS AND RELATED     CLOUD COVER ACROSS IA/WI/IL/IND HAS RESULTED IN MAINTENANCE OF     STRONG CAPPING /AS EVIDENT IN 19Z REGIONAL RAOBS/. HOWEVER...RECENT     CLEARING IN THE LAST 1-2 HOURS HAS ALLOWED FOR STRONG SURFACE     HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM THE UPPER 60S F INTO THE MID     70S TO LOW 80S F AS FAR NORTH AS THE IL/WI BORDER. ADDITIONAL     HEATING AND MOISTENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CAP. AS DEEP     LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER     SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN IA/SW     WI/FAR NW IL BY 23Z. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO     TRACK E-SE ALONG A STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF A     WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NRN IL INTO CENTRAL IND.        STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C/KM PER DVN AND ILX 19Z RAOBS     AND 0-6 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KT WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS     AND LARGE HAIL. FURTHERMORE...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH     MIXING RATIOS NEAR 14 G/KG AND BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS EVIDENT IN 19Z     RAOBS AND...MORE RECENTLY...INDICATED BY REGIONAL VWP/S...WILL     SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY ONE OR TWO SIG TORS/. STORMS     ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING MCS     WITH A COINCIDENT INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO     INDIANA...AND LATER TONIGHT THE OHIO VALLEY.

Fwd: tornado watch and warning

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Jun 22, 2016 at 8:15 PM
Subject: tornado watch and warning
To: Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>

There are two active tornado warnings in progress, both with confirmed and dangerous tornadoes. Thankfully the powerful tornado that has done damage near I 39 is tracking south of Aurora. Areas near Joliet and Chanahon need to pay close attention to this tornado.

New severe thunderstorm warning for Cook and Dupage. A line of strong severe storms is entering the area. Some moderate rotation but nothing tornadic yet.

Soldier Field is being evacuated at halftime of a Copa America semifinal -- decent precaution but unnecessary just yet.

Expect strong to severe storms through the whole area for the next hour or so.

On Jun 22, 2016, at 7:40 PM, Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com> wrote:

NWS did finally issue a tornado watch through 1:00 AM for the entire area (excluding Lake and McHenry).

A line of storms has erupted to our west and is moving ESE.

There is currently a confirmed and dangerous tornado on the ground approximately 20 miles west of Aurora, traveling east at 20-25 mph. If in the area stay alert for updates.

Another tornado warned storm is just to the SW of that one.

Other strong but currently not severe storms are approaching from the NW, currently impacting N and NW suburbs.

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Fwd: tornado watch and warning

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Jun 22, 2016 at 7:39 PM
Subject: tornado watch and warning
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>

NWS did finally issue a tornado watch through 1:00 AM for the entire area (excluding Lake and McHenry).

A line of storms has erupted to our west and is moving ESE.

There is currently a confirmed and dangerous tornado on the ground approximately 20 miles west of Aurora, traveling east at 20-25 mph. If in the area stay alert for updates.

Another tornado warned storm is just to the SW of that one.

Other strong but currently not severe storms are approaching from the NW, currently impacting N and NW suburbs.

Fwd: update on storm potential

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Jun 22, 2016 at 8:52 AM
Subject: update on storm potential
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>

Not much has changed and we remain at risk for severe storms later today.

A first wave of potentially severe or near-severe storms is likely to approach by mid-/late-morning, clearing the area by early afternoon.

Then there will be a break in the storms from early to mid-/late-afternoon before the main threat of severe weather arrives. If severe storms do develop it could happen quickly, and the most likely window is 5-6pm through roughly 10pm. One good model has a bow echo moving through the area from roughly 6-8pm, but again this is all subject to a lot of revision.

The threat for very high winds (80+ mph) remains. Large hail and tornadoes are also possible. I was hopeful that the most favored area for this threat would stay south and west of the Chicago area, but it still looks like a toss-up with the main threat area centered on the Chicago region.

The entire area is under a Flash Flood Watch through tonight. Certain locations may be hit repeatedly by heavy rainfall, and totals in the 3-4" range are certainly possible. That said, the corridor of severe storms and heavy/flooding rainfall may be several hundred miles long but only 25-40 miles wide. So we may see severe impacts at O'Hare but not downtown, for example. It is not possible to get to that level of precision in advance.

Expect a severe thunderstorm watch later today. I will only post further updates if the severe threat has significantly diminished or if warnings are issued.

Fwd: Severe threat Wednesday

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Jun 21, 2016 at 9:02 AM
Subject: Re: Severe threat Wednesday
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>

Things are really coming together for a severe weather outbreak tomorrow (Wednesday) in the Chicago area. Peak daytime heating will meet a very moist, unstable air mass. A SW low-level jet will add fuel right as a trough approaches from the west. This is a classic set up that, under similar circumstances in the past, has produced numerous supercell thunderstorms. The analogs point to some of the more destructive "derecho" events (large, well organized masses of thunderstorms with destructive straight-line winds).

At this point I think there is a strong likelihood (70% for me vs. 45% in the current NWS forecast) that locations in the Chicago area will see severe storms tomorrow. Large-scale high winds and/or tornadoes are the primary threats, with the attendant power outages and tree/structural damage likely in their wake. The threat for strong (EF3 or greater) tornadoes is somewhat low, but several weaker (and still deadly/destructive) tornadoes are more likely. With >2" of evaporated moisture certain locations could see some flooding problems too. The main threat will be widespread destructive winds of 60-80+ mph.

We will likely be confirmed or upgraded in the SPC convective outlook later today. By tonight or tomorrow morning we should also get a slightly better sense of timing and favored locations. From here it looks like late-afternoon into the evening are most favored for severe storms, and there will likely be some lesser thunderstorms earlier in the day on Wednesday (in the morning toward lunch) as the warm front passes. But as with all severe thunderstorm events it is nearly impossible to get precise with timing and location inside of a few hours and many thousand square miles.

Here is a sample of of the data/forecasts as they stand:

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE     EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN     INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND     EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.

We are closely monitoring the potential for numerous to widepsread severe thunderstorms, as well as torrential rainfall and flooding on Wednesday. The combination of an unseasonably strong storm system and a warm and humid air mass could yield significant severe weather somewhere over the region. All severe hazards are possible. Small scale details not yet known will affect the locations and magnitude of impacts. At this point the potential for more widespread storms is during the later afternoon and evening. The bottom line is, pay very close attention to the latest forecast updates and practice your severe weather safety plans to be ready if severe weather strikes your area on Wednesday.

Daniel Shaw ‏@DanielShawAU hou

I'm extremely concerned about the upcoming forecast and upgraded risk in heavily populated areas tomorrow.

On Mon, Jun 20, 2016 at 9:39 PM, Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com> wrote:

Happy Solstice!

It is still early but there is an emerging threat for severe weather on Wednesday that bears watching. Details will be coming tomorrow and Wednesday as warranted -- anyone with travel or outdoor plans should keep an eye on things.

Fwd: Severe threat Wednesday

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Jun 20, 2016 at 9:39 PM
Subject: Severe threat Wednesday
To: go@blogger.com

Happy Solstice!

It is still early but there is an emerging threat for severe weather on Wednesday that bears watching. Details will be coming tomorrow and Wednesday as warranted -- anyone with travel or outdoor plans should keep an eye on things.

Fwd: near-severe t-storms approaching

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, May 31, 2016 at 3:00 PM
Subject: near-severe t-storms approaching
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>

Thunderstorms that are near -- but currently below -- the severe threshold are approaching from the south and west. The visual is impressive (low shelf clouds, greenish rain core, lots of lightning) but there is nothing particularly dangerous or unusual. Expect heavy rain, some gusty winds, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and possibly some small hail. Storms will continue off-and-on for the rest of the afternoon before tapering. More storms are possible tomorrow.

Fwd: severe threat Tuesday + season to date + Memorial Day outlook + summer outlook

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, May 23, 2016 at 9:13 PM
Subject: severe threat Tuesday + season to date + Memorial Day outlook + summer outlook
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>

After another picture perfect day (and the 10th straight without any rain), tomorrow (Tuesday) features a good chance of thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon and evening. Some of the storms may be severe and watches/warnings may be required. Dewpoints will also climb into the 60s on Tuesday night -- the first real dose of humidity of the season.
The thunderstorm threat will continue through Wednesday night, although the likelihood of severe weather is lower. The likelihood of storms is high but they will not be continuous -- there will be plenty of breaks in between. The entire area will not see uniform rainfall, but average rainfall in the next few days is likely to exceed 1" and any locations favored by thunderstorms could see 2" or more.
High temperatures all week should stay in the 70s to low 80s (with slightly cooler temps along the lakeshore).

It's not your imagination: spring to-date in the area has been running cool and cloudy. Sunshine is running well below average, and we've only posted 14 Cooling Degree Days* -- that's the fewest since 2008 and compares to an average of 44. (The 50-year average at Midway for the full year is 1,045.)

It is still very early, but the overall pattern for the upcoming Memorial Day weekend looks pretty good. It won't be as good as the past couple of days, but nothing to complain about either. A few passing storms look likely, but the majority of hours will be dry with high temps in the 70s to low 80s.

With the usual caveats (seasonal outlooks are marginally informative at best, subject to significant ongoing revision, etc. etc.) here is an update on the summer (June - August) seasonal projection. As with year, when an exceptionally strong El Niño provided helpful information about the likelihood of a mild winter ahead, we are now dealing with the transition to a La Ni ña and the attendant likelihood of a hot summer. Again, the causality is not well understood, but the correlation is strong enough to deserve a mention.

* A Cooling Degree Day is a crude approximation of demand for air conditioning. Take the simple average of the day's high and low temperatures and then subtract 65 to calculate CDDs. For example, yesterday at O'Hare the high was 77 and the low was 53 for an average of 65 -- no CDDs were recorded for the date. Today we bottomed out at 48 but if we hit the forecast of 83 we'd record 5.5 CDDs. The same principle works for temps below 65F with regard to Heating Degree Days.

Fwd: severe thunderstorm watch until 10pm

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Apr 25, 2016 at 3:40 PM
Subject: severe thunderstorm watch until 10pm
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>

NWS has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for the entire area (north of ~I-80) until 10pm. Another day near 80 degrees has destabilized the atmosphere ahead of an approaching cold front. Storms are just beginning to develop in Wisconsin and will develop in the Chicago area this afternoon. This isn't the most impressive set up, but large hail and high winds are possible with these storms. A window from 5-8pm is the most likely time period for storms (moving west-to-east) in the general area.

Tonight temps will fall into the 40s and 50s. Highs the rest of the week will be stuck between 50 and 60F (and cooler than that along the lake). Chances of passing rain will also persist most of the week, with Wednesday afternoon and night offering the best chance for sustained rainfall.

Fwd: severe threat tonight -- update

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Mar 15, 2016 at 1:44 PM
Subject: severe threat tonight -- update
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>

This morning's fog is finally clearing out, and we should jump a quick 10 degrees in most spots. That and other factors still line up for a good chance of strong to severe storms tonight. The only update is that the timing has been pushed back somewhat -- the most likely window is now after the rush hour and sunset. Strong storms are already present in northern and northwestern Illinois but the main threat in the Chicago area is 9pm to midnight. The strongest storms -- those most likely to produce tornadoes and other severe weather -- will probably stay to our west and south, but high winds, hail, and even a tornado is possible in our area tonight.

Tomorrow, very strong winds -- gusting 50-60 mph -- could also disrupt the airports.

Fwd: Severe threat tomorrow (Tuesday)

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Mar 14, 2016 at 8:52 PM
Subject: Severe threat tomorrow (Tuesday)
To: go@blogger.com, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>

We are under a moderate threat for severe weather tomorrow. High winds and hail are possible and a isolated tornado can't be ruled out. A surge of mild air will approach from the south and we could approach 70F before a cold front arrives and triggers storms. The model image below is for 6:30pm. Anything +/- a few hours from that is fair game for a line of severe storms to fire in the area.

Wednesday and Thursday look much better with temps still mild (50s to near 60 away from the lake) and plenty of sunshine. Friday through the weekend we'll backslide into a wet and colder pattern, with temps stuck in the 40s and a stray snow shower possible. (Sticking snow is not likely at this point.)

Fwd: WWA

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 2, 2016 at 4:44 PM
Subject: WWA
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>

We're under a Winter Weather Advisory for snow. The corridor along I-80 is most favored for snow, and the far north (Lake County) is excluded from the advisory area. Most of the region will see an inch or two of snow, maybe 3" on the high side. The snow will move in tonight between 9pm and midnight, continuing through tomorrow afternoon. Snowfall rates will never be heavy, but unfortunately they could be light or even moderate during the morning rush hour. Some effect on the roads and the airports is likely.

Beyond that, a major pattern shift is in the cards. A wet (mostly rain) system on Saturday will yield to a bright and mild day on Sunday. Then the warm-up begins. Mid-60s and even a 70+ is coming by the early and middle part of next week.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL  257 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016    ILZ012>014-020>022-INZ001-002-030500-  /O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0007.160303T0500Z-160303T2000Z/  KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-LAKE IN-PORTER-  INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OSWEGO...  MORRIS...JOLIET...GARY...VALPARAISO  257 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016    ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO  2 PM CST THURSDAY...    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER  WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS  EVENING TO 2 PM CST THURSDAY.    * TIMING...EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN    DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.    * PRECIPITATION RATES...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR    BETWEEN THE EARLY AND MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.    * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES    ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES.    * VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES.    * IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DURING    THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY.    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...    A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL  CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED  ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.  THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN  BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

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