Fwd: update on storm potential

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Jun 22, 2016 at 8:52 AM
Subject: update on storm potential
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>

Not much has changed and we remain at risk for severe storms later today. 

A first wave of potentially severe or near-severe storms is likely to approach by mid-/late-morning, clearing the area by early afternoon. 

Then there will be a break in the storms from early to mid-/late-afternoon before the main threat of severe weather arrives. If severe storms do develop it could happen quickly, and the most likely window is 5-6pm through roughly 10pm. One good model has a bow echo moving through the area from roughly 6-8pm, but again this is all subject to a lot of revision. 

The threat for very high winds (80+ mph) remains. Large hail and tornadoes are also possible. I was hopeful that the most favored area for this threat would stay south and west of the Chicago area, but it still looks like a toss-up with the main threat area centered on the Chicago region.

The entire area is under a Flash Flood Watch through tonight. Certain locations may be hit repeatedly by heavy rainfall, and totals in the 3-4" range are certainly possible. That said, the corridor of severe storms and heavy/flooding rainfall may be several hundred miles long but only 25-40 miles wide. So we may see severe impacts at O'Hare but not downtown, for example. It is not possible to get to that level of precision in advance. 

Expect a severe thunderstorm watch later today. I will only post further updates if the severe threat has significantly diminished or if warnings are issued.