Well, so much for that. Storms are 3-4 hours ahead of schedule and will be approaching the western burbs within the hour and could reach downtown by 2:00-2:30. At this point nothing is severe-warned, but there are gusty 30-40 mph winds with heavy downpours and plenty of lightning.
12:52pm:
We could well see the promised (potentially stronger) storms develop behind this way, but things have obviously changed and storms like this can rearrange the atmosphere pretty significantly.
(But to answer a question I’ve already received, yes, the weekend warmup and outlook still looks good.)
From: Philip C. Ordway [mailto:pordway=anabaticllc.com@mail180.suw16.rsgsv.net] On Behalf Of Philip C. Ordway
Sent: Wednesday, May 10, 2017 9:15 AM
To: Philip C. Ordway <pordway@anabaticllc.com>
Subject: severe storm threat + pattern shift + historically chilly May open
There is a slight threat of severe storms this afternoon and evening, although the best chance for severe storms is well to the south and west of Chicago. This is a marginal set up and barely warrants an email, but the entire area is likely to see some storms. It should be dry through most/all of the afternoon, but near sunset an organized band of storms should arrive from the west. There is a large area of organized thunderstorms and severe weather, so I would expect some air traffic disruptions tonight too.
This model snapshot is for ~9:00pm:
Starting Friday, we’re due for a major pattern flip. Temps will remain cooler near the lake, but Friday through the weekend should be mostly sunny with highs starting in the 50s lakeside/60s inland and rising toward mid-60s lakeside and upper 70s inland by Sunday.
And if you’ve been thinking that May has been unusually chilly, it’s not your imagination. This has been the chilliest open to May in 28 years! And part of the effect is amplified in that the January-April period was crazy warm (see below) so the contrast is stark. And look at the number of mild days (high temp >65F):
- February: 6 days
- March: 3 days
- April: 14 days
- May-to-date: 0 days
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