Memorial Day weekend

Lots of questions about the cool and wet pattern we’ve had in May and the outlook for the upcoming holiday weekend. The details will vary a little bit but the overall pattern is pretty clear, and it’s mostly good. If there is a specific time/issue send me an email directly.

 

• Starting tomorrow (Thursday) we’re going to move out of the cool, wet weather that has dominated the month. Each day through Sunday should add a few degrees and there will be much more sun.
• The Thursday-Saturday period should be almost entirely dry. Don’t let some stupid weather graphic/emoji fool you – there might be a brief passing shower/storm over a small area, but there will be no large, organized storms that would create a washout for a whole day.
  • Saturday night and Sunday the chances of a thunderstorm increase, but again these will not be long-duration storms. At this point I don’t see any reason to alter outdoor plans. Any storms will be sporadic and nearly impossible to pinpoint, and they won’t last long either way.
• High temps will be in the 60s and 70s – Saturday in particular looks like a good bet to reach the high 70s (maybe 80 in a few spots). Skies won’t be entirely sunny, though, and the extent of our cloud cover will determine how much warming we get. Note that within a few miles of the lake a weak lake breeze will probably knock 5-15 degrees of these temps.
• The overall pattern through early June looks seasonable – nothing notably cool and no spells of heat yet either. And yes, May (and all of the spring season here) has been extraordinarily cloudy and wet. We’ve posted a sunshine deficit against the average for three straight months, and rainfall is running at 150-200% of normal. Today is also the sixth-straight day with measurable rain.
• Summary by day (see above re: lake breeze):
  • Friday – mix of clouds; no rain other than a very slight chance of a shower near/after sunset; afternoon temps in the low/mid 70s
  • Saturday – more sun but still some clouds in the area; temps in the 70s to near 80 in the afternoon; 30-50% chance of a thunderstorm near/after sunset
  • Sunday – 20-40% chance of a passing shower/thunderstorm most of the day, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s
  • Monday (getting a bit far out…) – more of the same: passing clouds; slight chance of a shower; highs in the upper 60s to low 70s

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severe storm threat today

SPC just posted an upgrade to our outlook, bumping parts of the N/NW suburbs to an “Enhanced” chance of severe storms. The whole area has a very good chance of storms, and severe storms are possible throughout. The main threat is high winds, although some hail or an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out. Expect a severe watch later today, but I won’t post any updates unless something unusual develops.

 

Beyond the storm threat, today looks likely to be the warmest of 2017 so far – highs should reach the low- to mid-80s in most locations, although within a few miles of the lake temps could be 10-25 degrees cooler. The entire week looks warm, with no signs of below normal temps. Most highs will be well into the 70s and several (today through Thursday) should reach 80+ with occasional passing t-storm chances (especially on Wednesday).

 

 

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RE: severe storm threat + pattern shift + historically chilly May open

Well, so much for that. Storms are 3-4 hours ahead of schedule and will be approaching the western burbs within the hour and could reach downtown by 2:00-2:30. At this point nothing is severe-warned, but there are gusty 30-40 mph winds with heavy downpours and plenty of lightning.

 

12:52pm:

 

 

We could well see the promised (potentially stronger) storms develop behind this way, but things have obviously changed and storms like this can rearrange the atmosphere pretty significantly.

 

(But to answer a question I’ve already received, yes, the weekend warmup and outlook still looks good.)

 

From: Philip C. Ordway [mailto:pordway=anabaticllc.com@mail180.suw16.rsgsv.net] On Behalf Of Philip C. Ordway
Sent: Wednesday, May 10, 2017 9:15 AM
To: Philip C. Ordway <pordway@anabaticllc.com>
Subject: severe storm threat + pattern shift + historically chilly May open

 

There is a slight threat of severe storms this afternoon and evening, although the best chance for severe storms is well to the south and west of Chicago. This is a marginal set up and barely warrants an email, but the entire area is likely to see some storms. It should be dry through most/all of the afternoon, but near sunset an organized band of storms should arrive from the west. There is a large area of organized thunderstorms and severe weather, so I would expect some air traffic disruptions tonight too.

 

This model snapshot is for ~9:00pm:

 

 

 

Starting Friday, we’re due for a major pattern flip. Temps will remain cooler near the lake, but Friday through the weekend should be mostly sunny with highs starting in the 50s lakeside/60s inland and rising toward mid-60s lakeside and upper 70s inland by Sunday.

 

And if you’ve been thinking that May has been unusually chilly, it’s not your imagination. This has been the chilliest open to May in 28 years! And part of the effect is amplified in that the January-April period was crazy warm (see below) so the contrast is stark. And look at the number of mild days (high temp >65F):

 

• February:            6 days
• March:                  3 days
• April:                     14 days
• May-to-date:     0 days

 

 

 

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severe storm threat + pattern shift + historically chilly May open

There is a slight threat of severe storms this afternoon and evening, although the best chance for severe storms is well to the south and west of Chicago. This is a marginal set up and barely warrants an email, but the entire area is likely to see some storms. It should be dry through most/all of the afternoon, but near sunset an organized band of storms should arrive from the west. There is a large area of organized thunderstorms and severe weather, so I would expect some air traffic disruptions tonight too.

 

This model snapshot is for ~9:00pm:

 

 

 

Starting Friday, we’re due for a major pattern flip. Temps will remain cooler near the lake, but Friday through the weekend should be mostly sunny with highs starting in the 50s lakeside/60s inland and rising toward mid-60s lakeside and upper 70s inland by Sunday.

 

And if you’ve been thinking that May has been unusually chilly, it’s not your imagination. This has been the chilliest open to May in 28 years! And part of the effect is amplified in that the January-April period was crazy warm (see below) so the contrast is stark. And look at the number of mild days (high temp >65F):

 

• February:            6 days
• March:                  3 days
• April:                     14 days
• May-to-date:     0 days

 

 

 

This email is confidential and intended only for the recipient(s). If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender at compliance@anabaticllc.com and delete this message and any attachments. This message is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy any financial instruments. Please see the full disclaimer at www.anabaticllc.com.

Recap: recent rainfall and winter 2016-17

The weekend rains were as heavy as advertised, with 3.59" reported at Midway and 3.36" at O'Hare. Other totals generally ranged from 2.0 to 4.5 inches. A full April averages ~3.4 inches, so we essentially had an entire April packed into one weekend. That continues a very wet start to 2017, which has opened with 14.8” of rain and stands as the sixth-wettest at O’Hare since 1971.

 

More light showers are roaming the area this afternoon and evening, but the powerhouse storm is clearing the area and thankfully we’ll be drying out in its wake. Temps will climb through the 50s and 60s with lots of sun as the week goes on.

 

And despite the weekend snow in places like Denver -- and an all-out blizzard in parts of Kansas and Nebraska -- winter is really, officially over, so here is a recap.

 

• Our total seasonal snowfall was 26.1” officially at O’Hare, the least since 2011-’12 and well below the 30-year average of 38”
  • After starting the winter with a bang (17.7” in December, and all of that in the first three weeks) we had a near-record stretch of snowless weather that lasted into March
  • For the first time ever we had less than 1” combined in January and February
  • There was no snow in April, and the last trace of snow (also the date of the last measurable snow){ on March 14^th is the 3^rd-earliest on record
• A freeze is still possible, although it is historically rare and really, really unlikely given the upcoming forecast…so if our last freeze holds at March 23, that would be the second-earliest on record (tying 1871)
• Meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) was unusual, to say the least
  • We saw five thunderstorm days – more than 1-2 days is rare, but I couldn’t find the all-time record
  • We saw more days with measurable rain than days with measurable snow
  • We saw 46 (!) days with fog – again, I couldn’t find the all-time record but that has to be up there – and 11 days with dense fog (vis. < ¼ mile)
  • The average high temperature was 4.2 degrees above normal and the average low was 4.3 degrees to the warm side

 

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