Cook County is under a severe thunderstorm warning. High winds have been detected by radar. Flooding rain (on top of yesterday's deluge) and lightning are also a threat.
Non-severe storms will impact most of the rest of the area for the next few hours before clearing. Tomorrow will be hot but with some relief -- the near-record dewpoints of the past few days will be gone.
Sunday, July 24, 2016
Saturday, July 23, 2016
More storms
I held off on an email about the first round of storms -- most were below severe limits and only part of the area was affected. Bad call on my part. There wasn't a drop at my house but I just saw a report of well over 4" from a rain gauge in Winnetka. The Edens is closed and the airports are backed up.
And now more storms are approaching. The whole area is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and a round of warned storms is approaching Dekalb. Strong to severe storms will affect most of the area through 11:30 or so. Flooding could become a real problem in areas already hit once today.
Thursday, July 21, 2016
Severe storms
In this incredible airmass -- it is almost 8:00pm with a 91-degree temp and 78 dewpoint!! -- severe storms are approaching from the north. Lake and McHenry are severe warned right now and the rest are under a watch. Storms could weaken but are likely to make it through the area mostly intact. Wind damage and flooding are the primary threats. Storms will be active now through 10-11pm tonight.
The heat continues tomorrow and through most of the weekend.
This email is confidential and intended only for the recipient(s). Copying, distributing or otherwise using this information is prohibited if you are not the intended recipient. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender at compliance@anabaticllc.com and delete this message and any attachments. This message is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy any financial instruments. Offering documents and supporting documentation are available upon request. There can be no assurance that Anabatic Investment Partners LLC will achieve results comparable to those presented in this email and the information contained herein. Past or projected performance is not indicative of future results. The products described may not be eligible for sale in all countries and should be sold only to qualified investors. The financial instruments discussed in this document may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own investment decisions.
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
Some storms then excessive heat watch
Occasional strong (but likely non-severe) storms are possible tomorrow morning and throughout the day. Each of the next few days has a chance of storms.
And it is going to get hot. Nothing record-breaking but definitely the hottest here since 2012. Temps Thursday and Friday will likely hit the mid-/upper-90s with a few spots probably hitting 100. With high dewpoints the heat index with peak around 105-115. Saturday will be hot too before things moderate Sunday and next week.
This email is confidential and intended only for the recipient(s). Copying, distributing or otherwise using this information is prohibited if you are not the intended recipient. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender at compliance@anabaticllc.com and delete this message and any attachments. This message is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy any financial instruments. Offering documents and supporting documentation are available upon request. There can be no assurance that Anabatic Investment Partners LLC will achieve results comparable to those presented in this email and the information contained herein. Past or projected performance is not indicative of future results. The products described may not be eligible for sale in all countries and should be sold only to qualified investors. The financial instruments discussed in this document may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own investment decisions.
And it is going to get hot. Nothing record-breaking but definitely the hottest here since 2012. Temps Thursday and Friday will likely hit the mid-/upper-90s with a few spots probably hitting 100. With high dewpoints the heat index with peak around 105-115. Saturday will be hot too before things moderate Sunday and next week.
This email is confidential and intended only for the recipient(s). Copying, distributing or otherwise using this information is prohibited if you are not the intended recipient. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender at compliance@anabaticllc.com and delete this message and any attachments. This message is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy any financial instruments. Offering documents and supporting documentation are available upon request. There can be no assurance that Anabatic Investment Partners LLC will achieve results comparable to those presented in this email and the information contained herein. Past or projected performance is not indicative of future results. The products described may not be eligible for sale in all countries and should be sold only to qualified investors. The financial instruments discussed in this document may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own investment decisions.
Wednesday, July 13, 2016
Severe warning south, marginal storms elsewhere
A line of severe warned storms with confirmed 65 mph gusts is moving through Will and far southern Cook. The line extends north through the entire area but is below severe levels. The airport delays are really mounting, though.
Expect storms through 8:00-9:00 for most areas.
Dry tomorrow and Friday. Triple digit heat possible here or nearby next week.
This email is confidential and intended only for the recipient(s). Copying, distributing or otherwise using this information is prohibited if you are not the intended recipient. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender at compliance@anabaticllc.com and delete this message and any attachments. This message is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy any financial instruments. Offering documents and supporting documentation are available upon request. There can be no assurance that Anabatic Investment Partners LLC will achieve results comparable to those presented in this email and the information contained herein. Past or projected performance is not indicative of future results. The products described may not be eligible for sale in all countries and should be sold only to qualified investors. The financial instruments discussed in this document may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own investment decisions.
Expect storms through 8:00-9:00 for most areas.
Dry tomorrow and Friday. Triple digit heat possible here or nearby next week.
This email is confidential and intended only for the recipient(s). Copying, distributing or otherwise using this information is prohibited if you are not the intended recipient. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender at compliance@anabaticllc.com and delete this message and any attachments. This message is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy any financial instruments. Offering documents and supporting documentation are available upon request. There can be no assurance that Anabatic Investment Partners LLC will achieve results comparable to those presented in this email and the information contained herein. Past or projected performance is not indicative of future results. The products described may not be eligible for sale in all countries and should be sold only to qualified investors. The financial instruments discussed in this document may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own investment decisions.
Wednesday, July 6, 2016
severe tstorm threat Thursday
The storms that moved through last night were likely the opening act for even more significant storms tomorrow (Thursday) as intense heat builds to our south and west and strong/severe storms rotate around the periphery.
(As a sidenote, the set up last night wasn’t that impressive, the storms themselves were very marginally over the severe threshold, and they occurred in the middle of the night – hence the lack of emails/updates.)
The entire Chicago area has been upgraded to “Enhanced” risk for Thursday. Storms could emerge during the day but the prime time will be 6pm to midnight. It will be hot with plenty of available moisture, so heavy rainfall will also be an issue. NWS is calling the situation “complex and uncertain” with the potential for widespread damaging winds. It certainly bears watching.
The rest of today (Wednesday) looks hot but mostly dry, with only a slight chance of a stray thunderstorm.
Fwd: tornado watch likely
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Jun 22, 2016 at 4:50 PM
Subject: tornado watch likely
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>
SPC has put the entire region at 95% likelihood of a tornado watch within the hour. I would expect it to be issued any moment. Excerpts of the MSD are below. There is certainly plenty of spin in the air (see below) so any severe storms that do develop could easily produce a tornado.
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Jun 22, 2016 at 4:50 PM
Subject: tornado watch likely
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>
[Note: the current storms in the area are producing some lightning and brief heavy rain, but they are NOT severe and NOT the potentially severe storms that could arrive this evening.]
The bad news, beyond the helicity, is the rapid destabilization of the atmosphere. As expected, warm moist air is flooding into the lower part of the atmosphere and it will sound ascend into newly formed storms. The CAPE (a measure of convective potential available energy) has jumped to >2,000 joules per kg -- well into severe territory.
The good news is that the heart of the severe and tornado threat remains just to the west of Chicago. Let's hope that any destructive storms that do develop stay over undeveloped areas. The exact frontal boundary will determine the specifics, which are impossible to pinpoint inside of 25-50 miles.
The most likely timing for severe storms in the Chicago area is 7-10pm. A couple of models are putting one or two discrete supercells in the area around 8:00, but such precision is tricky at best.
Not that it needs to be said, but the airports are obviously going to be a mess.
And again, the current NWS/SPC probabilities are 10% for a tornado within 25 miles of any point in the Chicago area, 45% chance of damaging winds, and a 30% chance of >1" hail. Those are meaningful chances -- and I would take the over on all three -- but they are far from certainties. This is also your daily reminder than if a storm produces severe weather in Schaumburg or Oak Park but not directly over your condo in River North, nobody cares and you're missing the point -- a severe storm still occurred in the forecast area.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1020 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...FAR SRN WI...NRN INTO CNTRL IL...NW IND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 222038Z - 222215Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 23Z. THESE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR FOR PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA. DISCUSSION...CONVECTION DURING MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS AND RELATED CLOUD COVER ACROSS IA/WI/IL/IND HAS RESULTED IN MAINTENANCE OF STRONG CAPPING /AS EVIDENT IN 19Z REGIONAL RAOBS/. HOWEVER...RECENT CLEARING IN THE LAST 1-2 HOURS HAS ALLOWED FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM THE UPPER 60S F INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S F AS FAR NORTH AS THE IL/WI BORDER. ADDITIONAL HEATING AND MOISTENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CAP. AS DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN IA/SW WI/FAR NW IL BY 23Z. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK E-SE ALONG A STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NRN IL INTO CENTRAL IND. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C/KM PER DVN AND ILX 19Z RAOBS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KT WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL. FURTHERMORE...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH MIXING RATIOS NEAR 14 G/KG AND BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS EVIDENT IN 19Z RAOBS AND...MORE RECENTLY...INDICATED BY REGIONAL VWP/S...WILL SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY ONE OR TWO SIG TORS/. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH A COINCIDENT INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO INDIANA...AND LATER TONIGHT THE OHIO VALLEY.
Fwd: tornado watch and warning
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Jun 22, 2016 at 8:15 PM
Subject: tornado watch and warning
To: Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Jun 22, 2016 at 8:15 PM
Subject: tornado watch and warning
To: Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>
There are two active tornado warnings in progress, both with confirmed and dangerous tornadoes. Thankfully the powerful tornado that has done damage near I 39 is tracking south of Aurora. Areas near Joliet and Chanahon need to pay close attention to this tornado.
New severe thunderstorm warning for Cook and Dupage. A line of strong severe storms is entering the area. Some moderate rotation but nothing tornadic yet.
Soldier Field is being evacuated at halftime of a Copa America semifinal -- decent precaution but unnecessary just yet.
Expect strong to severe storms through the whole area for the next hour or so.This email is confidential and intended only for the recipient(s). You are prohibited from copying, distributing or otherwise using this information if you are not the intended recipient. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender at compliance@anabaticllc.com and delete this message and any attachments. This message is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy any financial instruments. Offering documents are available upon request. Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics or any other technical data will be supplied upon request. There can be no assurance that Anabatic Investment Partners LLC will achieve results comparable to those presented in this email and the information contained herein. Past or projected performance is not indicative of future results. The products described may not be eligible for sale in all countries and should be sold only to qualified investors. The financial instruments discussed in this document may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own investment decisions.--NWS did finally issue a tornado watch through 1:00 AM for the entire area (excluding Lake and McHenry).
A line of storms has erupted to our west and is moving ESE.
There is currently a confirmed and dangerous tornado on the ground approximately 20 miles west of Aurora, traveling east at 20-25 mph. If in the area stay alert for updates.
Another tornado warned storm is just to the SW of that one.
Other strong but currently not severe storms are approaching from the NW, currently impacting N and NW suburbs.
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Chicago Severe Weather Updates" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to chicagosevereweather+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/chicagosevereweather/CAFCUa77VL5BSapCKNDz1m%2BdN8Z6juw2iperZnwEjUmgZysM8Rw%40mail.gmail.com.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
Fwd: tornado watch and warning
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Jun 22, 2016 at 7:39 PM
Subject: tornado watch and warning
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Jun 22, 2016 at 7:39 PM
Subject: tornado watch and warning
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>
NWS did finally issue a tornado watch through 1:00 AM for the entire area (excluding Lake and McHenry).
A line of storms has erupted to our west and is moving ESE.
There is currently a confirmed and dangerous tornado on the ground approximately 20 miles west of Aurora, traveling east at 20-25 mph. If in the area stay alert for updates.
Another tornado warned storm is just to the SW of that one.
Other strong but currently not severe storms are approaching from the NW, currently impacting N and NW suburbs.
Fwd: update on storm potential
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Jun 22, 2016 at 8:52 AM
Subject: update on storm potential
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>
A first wave of potentially severe or near-severe storms is likely to approach by mid-/late-morning, clearing the area by early afternoon.
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Jun 22, 2016 at 8:52 AM
Subject: update on storm potential
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>
Not much has changed and we remain at risk for severe storms later today.
Then there will be a break in the storms from early to mid-/late-afternoon before the main threat of severe weather arrives. If severe storms do develop it could happen quickly, and the most likely window is 5-6pm through roughly 10pm. One good model has a bow echo moving through the area from roughly 6-8pm, but again this is all subject to a lot of revision.
The threat for very high winds (80+ mph) remains. Large hail and tornadoes are also possible. I was hopeful that the most favored area for this threat would stay south and west of the Chicago area, but it still looks like a toss-up with the main threat area centered on the Chicago region.
The entire area is under a Flash Flood Watch through tonight. Certain locations may be hit repeatedly by heavy rainfall, and totals in the 3-4" range are certainly possible. That said, the corridor of severe storms and heavy/flooding rainfall may be several hundred miles long but only 25-40 miles wide. So we may see severe impacts at O'Hare but not downtown, for example. It is not possible to get to that level of precision in advance.
Expect a severe thunderstorm watch later today. I will only post further updates if the severe threat has significantly diminished or if warnings are issued.
Fwd: Severe threat Wednesday
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Jun 21, 2016 at 9:02 AM
Subject: Re: Severe threat Wednesday
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Jun 21, 2016 at 9:02 AM
Subject: Re: Severe threat Wednesday
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>
Things are really coming together for a severe weather outbreak tomorrow (Wednesday) in the Chicago area. Peak daytime heating will meet a very moist, unstable air mass. A SW low-level jet will add fuel right as a trough approaches from the west. This is a classic set up that, under similar circumstances in the past, has produced numerous supercell thunderstorms. The analogs point to some of the more destructive "derecho" events (large, well organized masses of thunderstorms with destructive straight-line winds).
At this point I think there is a strong likelihood (70% for me vs. 45% in the current NWS forecast) that locations in the Chicago area will see severe storms tomorrow. Large-scale high winds and/or tornadoes are the primary threats, with the attendant power outages and tree/structural damage likely in their wake. The threat for strong (EF3 or greater) tornadoes is somewhat low, but several weaker (and still deadly/destructive) tornadoes are more likely. With >2" of evaporated moisture certain locations could see some flooding problems too. The main threat will be widespread destructive winds of 60-80+ mph.
We will likely be confirmed or upgraded in the SPC convective outlook later today. By tonight or tomorrow morning we should also get a slightly better sense of timing and favored locations. From here it looks like late-afternoon into the evening are most favored for severe storms, and there will likely be some lesser thunderstorms earlier in the day on Wednesday (in the morning toward lunch) as the warm front passes. But as with all severe thunderstorm events it is nearly impossible to get precise with timing and location inside of a few hours and many thousand square miles.
Here is a sample of of the data/forecasts as they stand:
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.
We are closely monitoring the potential for numerous to widepsread severe thunderstorms, as well as torrential rainfall and flooding on Wednesday. The combination of an unseasonably strong storm system and a warm and humid air mass could yield significant severe weather somewhere over the region. All severe hazards are possible. Small scale details not yet known will affect the locations and magnitude of impacts. At this point the potential for more widespread storms is during the later afternoon and evening. The bottom line is, pay very close attention to the latest forecast updates and practice your severe weather safety plans to be ready if severe weather strikes your area on Wednesday.
I'm extremely concerned about the upcoming forecast and upgraded risk in heavily populated areas tomorrow.
On Mon, Jun 20, 2016 at 9:39 PM, Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com> wrote:
Happy Solstice!
It is still early but there is an emerging threat for severe weather on Wednesday that bears watching. Details will be coming tomorrow and Wednesday as warranted -- anyone with travel or outdoor plans should keep an eye on things.
Fwd: Severe threat Wednesday
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Jun 20, 2016 at 9:39 PM
Subject: Severe threat Wednesday
To: go@blogger.com
Happy Solstice!
It is still early but there is an emerging threat for severe weather on Wednesday that bears watching. Details will be coming tomorrow and Wednesday as warranted -- anyone with travel or outdoor plans should keep an eye on things.
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Jun 20, 2016 at 9:39 PM
Subject: Severe threat Wednesday
To: go@blogger.com
Happy Solstice!
It is still early but there is an emerging threat for severe weather on Wednesday that bears watching. Details will be coming tomorrow and Wednesday as warranted -- anyone with travel or outdoor plans should keep an eye on things.
Fwd: near-severe t-storms approaching
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, May 31, 2016 at 3:00 PM
Subject: near-severe t-storms approaching
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, May 31, 2016 at 3:00 PM
Subject: near-severe t-storms approaching
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>
Thunderstorms that are near -- but currently below -- the severe threshold are approaching from the south and west. The visual is impressive (low shelf clouds, greenish rain core, lots of lightning) but there is nothing particularly dangerous or unusual. Expect heavy rain, some gusty winds, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and possibly some small hail. Storms will continue off-and-on for the rest of the afternoon before tapering. More storms are possible tomorrow.
Fwd: severe threat Tuesday + season to date + Memorial Day outlook + summer outlook
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, May 23, 2016 at 9:13 PM
Subject: severe threat Tuesday + season to date + Memorial Day outlook + summer outlook
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, May 23, 2016 at 9:13 PM
Subject: severe threat Tuesday + season to date + Memorial Day outlook + summer outlook
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>
- After another picture perfect day (and the 10th straight without any rain), tomorrow (Tuesday) features a good chance of thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon and evening. Some of the storms may be severe and watches/warnings may be required. Dewpoints will also climb into the 60s on Tuesday night -- the first real dose of humidity of the season.
- The thunderstorm threat will continue through Wednesday night, although the likelihood of severe weather is lower. The likelihood of storms is high but they will not be continuous -- there will be plenty of breaks in between. The entire area will not see uniform rainfall, but average rainfall in the next few days is likely to exceed 1" and any locations favored by thunderstorms could see 2" or more.
- High temperatures all week should stay in the 70s to low 80s (with slightly cooler temps along the lakeshore).
- It's not your imagination: spring to-date in the area has been running cool and cloudy. Sunshine is running well below average, and we've only posted 14 Cooling Degree Days* -- that's the fewest since 2008 and compares to an average of 44. (The 50-year average at Midway for the full year is 1,045.)
- It is still very early, but the overall pattern for the upcoming Memorial Day weekend looks pretty good. It won't be as good as the past couple of days, but nothing to complain about either. A few passing storms look likely, but the majority of hours will be dry with high temps in the 70s to low 80s.
- With the usual caveats (seasonal outlooks are marginally informative at best, subject to significant ongoing revision, etc. etc.) here is an update on the summer (June - August) seasonal projection. As with year, when an exceptionally strong El Niño provided helpful information about the likelihood of a mild winter ahead, we are now dealing with the transition to a La Niña and the attendant likelihood of a hot summer. Again, the causality is not well understood, but the correlation is strong enough to deserve a mention.
* A Cooling Degree Day is a crude approximation of demand for air conditioning. Take the simple average of the day's high and low temperatures and then subtract 65 to calculate CDDs. For example, yesterday at O'Hare the high was 77 and the low was 53 for an average of 65 -- no CDDs were recorded for the date. Today we bottomed out at 48 but if we hit the forecast of 83 we'd record 5.5 CDDs. The same principle works for temps below 65F with regard to Heating Degree Days.
Fwd: severe thunderstorm watch until 10pm
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Apr 25, 2016 at 3:40 PM
Subject: severe thunderstorm watch until 10pm
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Apr 25, 2016 at 3:40 PM
Subject: severe thunderstorm watch until 10pm
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>
NWS has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for the entire area (north of ~I-80) until 10pm. Another day near 80 degrees has destabilized the atmosphere ahead of an approaching cold front. Storms are just beginning to develop in Wisconsin and will develop in the Chicago area this afternoon. This isn't the most impressive set up, but large hail and high winds are possible with these storms. A window from 5-8pm is the most likely time period for storms (moving west-to-east) in the general area.
Tonight temps will fall into the 40s and 50s. Highs the rest of the week will be stuck between 50 and 60F (and cooler than that along the lake). Chances of passing rain will also persist most of the week, with Wednesday afternoon and night offering the best chance for sustained rainfall.
Fwd: severe threat tonight -- update
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Mar 15, 2016 at 1:44 PM
Subject: severe threat tonight -- update
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Mar 15, 2016 at 1:44 PM
Subject: severe threat tonight -- update
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>
This morning's fog is finally clearing out, and we should jump a quick 10 degrees in most spots. That and other factors still line up for a good chance of strong to severe storms tonight. The only update is that the timing has been pushed back somewhat -- the most likely window is now after the rush hour and sunset. Strong storms are already present in northern and northwestern Illinois but the main threat in the Chicago area is 9pm to midnight. The strongest storms -- those most likely to produce tornadoes and other severe weather -- will probably stay to our west and south, but high winds, hail, and even a tornado is possible in our area tonight.
Tomorrow, very strong winds -- gusting 50-60 mph -- could also disrupt the airports.
Fwd: Severe threat tomorrow (Tuesday)
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Mar 14, 2016 at 8:52 PM
Subject: Severe threat tomorrow (Tuesday)
To: go@blogger.com, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>
We are under a moderate threat for severe weather tomorrow. High winds and hail are possible and a isolated tornado can't be ruled out. A surge of mild air will approach from the south and we could approach 70F before a cold front arrives and triggers storms. The model image below is for 6:30pm. Anything +/- a few hours from that is fair game for a line of severe storms to fire in the area.
Wednesday and Thursday look much better with temps still mild (50s to near 60 away from the lake) and plenty of sunshine. Friday through the weekend we'll backslide into a wet and colder pattern, with temps stuck in the 40s and a stray snow shower possible. (Sticking snow is not likely at this point.)
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Mar 14, 2016 at 8:52 PM
Subject: Severe threat tomorrow (Tuesday)
To: go@blogger.com, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>
We are under a moderate threat for severe weather tomorrow. High winds and hail are possible and a isolated tornado can't be ruled out. A surge of mild air will approach from the south and we could approach 70F before a cold front arrives and triggers storms. The model image below is for 6:30pm. Anything +/- a few hours from that is fair game for a line of severe storms to fire in the area.
Wednesday and Thursday look much better with temps still mild (50s to near 60 away from the lake) and plenty of sunshine. Friday through the weekend we'll backslide into a wet and colder pattern, with temps stuck in the 40s and a stray snow shower possible. (Sticking snow is not likely at this point.)
Fwd: WWA
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 2, 2016 at 4:44 PM
Subject: WWA
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 2, 2016 at 4:44 PM
Subject: WWA
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>
We're under a Winter Weather Advisory for snow. The corridor along I-80 is most favored for snow, and the far north (Lake County) is excluded from the advisory area. Most of the region will see an inch or two of snow, maybe 3" on the high side. The snow will move in tonight between 9pm and midnight, continuing through tomorrow afternoon. Snowfall rates will never be heavy, but unfortunately they could be light or even moderate during the morning rush hour. Some effect on the roads and the airports is likely.
Beyond that, a major pattern shift is in the cards. A wet (mostly rain) system on Saturday will yield to a bright and mild day on Sunday. Then the warm-up begins. Mid-60s and even a 70+ is coming by the early and middle part of next week.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 257 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016 ILZ012>014-020>022-INZ001-002-030500- /O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0007.160303T0500Z-160303T2000Z/ KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-LAKE IN-PORTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OSWEGO... MORRIS...JOLIET...GARY...VALPARAISO 257 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM CST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM CST THURSDAY. * TIMING...EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. * PRECIPITATION RATES...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE EARLY AND MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES. * VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.
Fwd: mild then snow then very mild
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Feb 29, 2016 at 6:23 AM
Subject: mild then snow then very mild
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Feb 29, 2016 at 6:23 AM
Subject: mild then snow then very mild
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>
After another spectacular weekend with sun and mild temps, we're heading into one more pullback toward winter conditions.
Lake and McHenry counties are under a Winter Storm Warning from tonight through Tuesday morning. ~2" along the Cook County border to up to 6" along the Wisconsin border is the most likely scenario for now. But given that this is a strong but small and fast-moving storm, with lots of warm air at the ground, it wouldn't take much to alter this forecast.
South of Lake/McHenry, DuPage, Cook and the city of Chicago are under an advisory for sleet and snow. Rain or mix tonight should transition to some freezing rain and eventually light snow tomorrow morning. Accumulations should be fairly light. Given how warm the ground is I would hope the roads will stay in decent shape, but some impact on the morning commute cannot be ruled out.
The rest of the work week looks dry with below-average high temperatures in the 30s. The weekend will mark the beginning of a warm-up and it looks decent in its own right. And although we're still too far away to have much precision, the signals are in place for a major early-season warm spell beyond the weekend. The early to middle portion of next week (March 8-10) could well see temps in the 60s and 70s. As noted in one model below, even an 80 is not impossible, which would be a record for the date.
Fwd: storm update
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Feb 24, 2016 at 7:55 AM
Subject: storm update
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Feb 24, 2016 at 7:55 AM
Subject: storm update
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>
Not a lot has changed overnight, but there are still a lot of moving parts. Dry air is funneling into the area on strong NE winds right now, but the storm is in progress and snow is flying to our SE.
There is still high-confidence in blizzard conditions and 6-10" of snow in far SE Cook and NW Indiana. Kankakee-Hammond-Gary are under a Blizzard Warning. Any travel east of Chicago is going to be difficult if not impossible. Most of Michigan is going to get socked too.
There is much less confidence in the snow totals over much of the Chicago region. The band of heavy snow is very tight but this is a strong storm, so small changes can make a big difference. Right now the line of heaviest snow looks likely to stay near or SE of I-55.
Best guess right now remains 2-6" over most of the city and near suburbs, with amounts higher to the SE and less to the NW. Areas in Dupage and Lake counties may only see 1-2".
The precip should begin or change over by late morning. The worst conditions will be mid afternoon through evening, so affected areas could have a very rough evening commute.
The snow will be heavy and wet but the strong winds will still whip it around. Visibility is going to be poor this afternoon and evening. Winds are already strong, so flight delays and cancellations are likely to mount throughout the day.
The only mitigating factor is that the recent warmth and bare ground, combined with the warm temps today and during the snowfall, will make road treatment and conditions better than they otherwise would be.
Fwd: Winter Storm Warning / Winter Weather Advisory
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pordway@anabaticllc.com>
Date: Tue, Feb 23, 2016 at 9:40 PM
Subject: Re: Winter Storm Warning / Winter Weather Advisory
To: "Philip C. Ordway" <pcordway@gmail.com>
Cc: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>
I should have waited for the update from the model guidance and NWS, because things continue to come together. A further turn to the NW from a couple of credible models puts 8-10" down at MDW and 4-8" through a large part of the city. Again, there is a very tight gradient here so it wouldn't take much for this to swing either way. Still not much for northern and far western burbs but things could really come together over a good part of the area. And with wind gusts of 40-50 mph the impact will be significant. No change to timing, with worst conditions in the afternoon and early evening.
> On Feb 23, 2016, at 8:52 PM, Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> NWS has upgraded Cook County to a Winter Storm Warning. That is a little misleading though -- the storm is about as strong as advertised and has wobbled a touch to the NW toward us, but only far southern (and especially far southeastern) portions of Cook deserve the warning. Most of the city and especially far NW Cook (some 50 miles away) will see far more modest impacts. The worst of it will be along the lake shore near the Indiana border, where 4-8" totals and near blizzard conditions are possible. Totals will diminish rapidly to the NW. 2-4" for most of the city and maybe 1-2" for western and northern suburbs. Both airports could see a few inches and high winds will be an issue so flight delays and cancellations are likely. The snow will start tomorrow morning but warm temps and the warm ground should help the morning road conditions. Tomorrow afternoon and evening could be more problematic for traffic.
>
> On the upside the snow won't stick around long. Temps on Saturday will be near or above 50 with lots of sun.
>
> --
> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Chicago Severe Weather Updates" group.
> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to chicagosevereweather+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
> To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/chicagosevereweather/17829D6F-E568-47BF-93AF-86BE441F7C90%40gmail.com.
> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
> <image1.png>
This email and the information contained herein is confidential and intended only for the recipient(s). You are strictly prohibited from copying, distributing or otherwise using this information if you are not the intended recipient. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately at compliance@anabaticllc.com and delete this message and any related attachments. This message is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy any financial instruments. Offering documents are available upon request. Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics or any other technical data will be supplied upon request. There can be no assurance that Anabatic Investment Partners LLC will achieve results comparable to those presented in this email and the information contained herein. Past or projected performance is not indicative of future results. The products described may not be eligible for sale in all countries and should be sold only to qualified investors. The financial instruments discussed in this document may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own investment decisions using their own independent advisors as they believe necessary and based upon their specific financial situations and investment objectives.
From: Philip C. Ordway <pordway@anabaticllc.com>
Date: Tue, Feb 23, 2016 at 9:40 PM
Subject: Re: Winter Storm Warning / Winter Weather Advisory
To: "Philip C. Ordway" <pcordway@gmail.com>
Cc: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>
I should have waited for the update from the model guidance and NWS, because things continue to come together. A further turn to the NW from a couple of credible models puts 8-10" down at MDW and 4-8" through a large part of the city. Again, there is a very tight gradient here so it wouldn't take much for this to swing either way. Still not much for northern and far western burbs but things could really come together over a good part of the area. And with wind gusts of 40-50 mph the impact will be significant. No change to timing, with worst conditions in the afternoon and early evening.
> On Feb 23, 2016, at 8:52 PM, Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> NWS has upgraded Cook County to a Winter Storm Warning. That is a little misleading though -- the storm is about as strong as advertised and has wobbled a touch to the NW toward us, but only far southern (and especially far southeastern) portions of Cook deserve the warning. Most of the city and especially far NW Cook (some 50 miles away) will see far more modest impacts. The worst of it will be along the lake shore near the Indiana border, where 4-8" totals and near blizzard conditions are possible. Totals will diminish rapidly to the NW. 2-4" for most of the city and maybe 1-2" for western and northern suburbs. Both airports could see a few inches and high winds will be an issue so flight delays and cancellations are likely. The snow will start tomorrow morning but warm temps and the warm ground should help the morning road conditions. Tomorrow afternoon and evening could be more problematic for traffic.
>
> On the upside the snow won't stick around long. Temps on Saturday will be near or above 50 with lots of sun.
>
> --
> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Chicago Severe Weather Updates" group.
> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to chicagosevereweather+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
> To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/chicagosevereweather/17829D6F-E568-47BF-93AF-86BE441F7C90%40gmail.com.
> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
> <image1.png>
This email and the information contained herein is confidential and intended only for the recipient(s). You are strictly prohibited from copying, distributing or otherwise using this information if you are not the intended recipient. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately at compliance@anabaticllc.com and delete this message and any related attachments. This message is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy any financial instruments. Offering documents are available upon request. Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics or any other technical data will be supplied upon request. There can be no assurance that Anabatic Investment Partners LLC will achieve results comparable to those presented in this email and the information contained herein. Past or projected performance is not indicative of future results. The products described may not be eligible for sale in all countries and should be sold only to qualified investors. The financial instruments discussed in this document may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own investment decisions using their own independent advisors as they believe necessary and based upon their specific financial situations and investment objectives.
Fwd: Winter Storm Warning / Winter Weather Advisory
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Feb 23, 2016 at 8:51 PM
Subject: Winter Storm Warning / Winter Weather Advisory
To: go@blogger.com, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>
NWS has upgraded Cook County to a Winter Storm Warning. That is a little misleading though -- the storm is about as strong as advertised and has wobbled a touch to the NW toward us, but only far southern (and especially far southeastern) portions of Cook deserve the warning. Most of the city and especially far NW Cook (some 50 miles away) will see far more modest impacts. The worst of it will be along the lake shore near the Indiana border, where 4-8" totals and near blizzard conditions are possible. Totals will diminish rapidly to the NW. 2-4" for most of the city and maybe 1-2" for western and northern suburbs. Both airports could see a few inches and high winds will be an issue so flight delays and cancellations are likely. The snow will start tomorrow morning but warm temps and the warm ground should help the morning road conditions. Tomorrow afternoon and evening could be more problematic for traffic.
On the upside the snow won't stick around long. Temps on Saturday will be near or above 50 with lots of sun.
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Feb 23, 2016 at 8:51 PM
Subject: Winter Storm Warning / Winter Weather Advisory
To: go@blogger.com, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>
NWS has upgraded Cook County to a Winter Storm Warning. That is a little misleading though -- the storm is about as strong as advertised and has wobbled a touch to the NW toward us, but only far southern (and especially far southeastern) portions of Cook deserve the warning. Most of the city and especially far NW Cook (some 50 miles away) will see far more modest impacts. The worst of it will be along the lake shore near the Indiana border, where 4-8" totals and near blizzard conditions are possible. Totals will diminish rapidly to the NW. 2-4" for most of the city and maybe 1-2" for western and northern suburbs. Both airports could see a few inches and high winds will be an issue so flight delays and cancellations are likely. The snow will start tomorrow morning but warm temps and the warm ground should help the morning road conditions. Tomorrow afternoon and evening could be more problematic for traffic.
On the upside the snow won't stick around long. Temps on Saturday will be near or above 50 with lots of sun.
Fwd: mid-week storm potential
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Feb 22, 2016 at 2:06 PM
Subject: mid-week storm potential
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>, chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Feb 22, 2016 at 2:06 PM
Subject: mid-week storm potential
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>, chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com
I hope everyone enjoyed the spectacular weather on Friday and Saturday. Most places hit 60F on both days, even if the winds on Friday were intense. (Those were some of the strongest non-thunderstorm winds I've ever experienced. Officially the gusts were over 60 mph with a few outliers over 70 mph.)
Now we're back into a more seasonal pattern. Wednesday into Wednesday night a strong storm will be climbing through the Ohio River Valley with the potential for heavy snow and high winds on the backside. For now, the best track appears to be far enough to Chicago's SE to prevent most of the snow from coming in here. Some big caveats: this storm looks powerful; it is likely to produce a narrow band of intense snow; and the difference between heavy snow and very little snow is only ~25 miles. A lot can change from this point forward, and even if this track verifies ares in and near Chicago could see an inch or two of snow (especially in locations downwind of a NE wind off of Lake Michigan). Anyone traveling east should have on eye on this -- Michigan could get buried, and further east it will be a windy and wet mess.
Beyond this storm there isn't much on the horizon. The overall pattern looks seasonal, with lots of highs in the 30s and 40s. A brief shot of cold air is possible in the 7-10 day range but that's about it.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)