Winter Storm Watch

NWS has already issued a Winter Storm Watch for the entire area beginning tomorrow (Friday) at 3:00 pm CST and running through noon on Saturday. Heavy snow with 4-8” and locally heavier totals. Blowing snow may also be an issue on Saturday.

 

For the Chicago area:

• Snow begins tomorrow afternoon. The heaviest snowfall rates will be overnight. Lake-effect snow is a major wildcard, especially on Saturday.
  • The evening commute could be tricky. It might not be piling up too much by then, but even an inch of sticking snow on a Friday evening commute can make for looooooooong delays on the roads. The airports will see some delays and cancellations too.
• Snow totals through Saturday night should be in the 3-6 inch range. Totals of 6-8+ would not be a surprise. The chance of a bust (<1-2”) is low – less than 10%. But the chance of a boom (>8”) is moderate – about 30%.
  • A little bit – or lack – of lake-effect snow can make a big difference. Getting a precise read on that in advance is impossible

 

I’ll send an update tomorrow morning as the guidance is refined, but as this point I would expect an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning and relatively little change in the overall picture.

 

Other notes:

 

• Lake-effect snow is an issue given the strong NE wind and warm water. Lake-prone areas are in play for bursts of very heavy snow and totals that exceed the average across the area.
• Air travel disruptions are going to be hard to avoid. The entire eastern half of the continental U.S. is going to be fighting rough weather for the next 1-3 days.
  • Snow/ice from Dallas to Philly, NYC and Boston
  • Heavy rain and thunderstorms everywhere else: Houston to Atlanta to Florida to the Carolinas
• Roads are going to be tough on Friday until the PM commute clears and the plows can catch up. Some roads will be snow-covered on Saturday, and heavy bands of lake-effect will make for sporadic white-out conditions, but overall road conditions should be fine by Saturday afternoon.
• A corridor from central Illinois through Indianapolis and northern Indiana to Cleveland and Pittsburgh and upstate NY, is a good bet to see more than a half-foot of snow. Northern PA and upstate NY are a good bet to see more than a foot of snow.
• Cold weather is locked in for the next two weeks. We’ll have at least a few rounds of snow, punctuated with cold outbreaks.
  • I don’t see any reason to put stock in long-range models because unlike the 1-/7-/10-day models they’re just not very good. But given that the arctic has returned to “normal” and this is “triple split” of the PV, you’d think we would have more episodic cold/snow than in prior years with a similar cold/snowy pattern. Also, winter in eastern North America had a very mild start, and it’s already more than halfway over. It wouldn’t surprise me if there is another big flip back toward mild weather by early-/mid-February.

 

Local odds of >4 inches are >70%:

 

 

 

Regional odds of >8 inches:

 

 

 

For my two polar-vortex enthusiasts:

 

• A great video of a model depiction of the polar vortex split a few weeks ago:  https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1084935021171924992
• Also shown here from above:
•  

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Significant snow potential -- halfway through winter, winter arrives

Well, the cold then mild pattern we’ve had this winter is turning cold again.

 

It is very early, but a significant storm is taking shape for Friday and Saturday. The models below are a good guess, but specifics on track and snow totals are impossible to pinpoint this far in advance. I would put high odds on at least a few inches of snow and disruptions to travel I the shaded areas from Friday night through Saturday. It looks like some locations in the Midwest and Northeast are going to be hit by a foot or more in a major winter storm, but again the details are far from set. Stayed tuned for an updated on Thursday as things come into focus.

 

For those of you – and I do mean both of you – interested in the inside baseball of this situation, here goes:

• A couple of weeks ago the upper atmosphere above the arctic underwent a massive warming. The pros call it a “sudden stratospheric warming.” Temperatures at altitude went from about -100F to above zero in a short period of time. That is…not normal. And it pushes all that cold air down toward the ground and south, away from the north pole.
• The poorly-named (and often-misused term) polar vortex is really just a near-constant area of low pressure above the arctic that keeps the coldest air contained within an atmospheric river. When this sudden warming happens that “river” gets distorted and disrupted by the movement of the cold air.
• Chunks of that bitter air start floating across the planet toward places that normally wouldn’t be so cold. This time, there are three distinct “lobes” of cold air – think of them as icebergs floating in a current. The biggest one has been hammering Europe for about a week. A smaller one is about to descend on Canada, the U.S. Midwest and the U.S. Northeast.
• The arctic has already recovered to “normal” – i.e., the river of air containing the coldest air above the polar cap has reformed. But we still have to wait for those “icebergs” to float along and dissipate, which will take another 7-10 days, roughly.
• It does not, for now, look like this will persist into February, but stay tuned on that.

 

Also, for football fans and/or degenerate gamblers, the over/under for kickoff temp in Kansas City on Sunday is about 4.5 degrees F. It could well be below zero at some point during the game, among the coldest NFL games ever played.

 

 

 

 

 

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Snow!

It’s going to snow!!!!! Red alert!!!!

 

Ok, not really. We might get an inch or two Friday night into Saturday. This definitely doesn’t qualify as severe/disruptive, but I’m super bored with the weather around here lately so I had to send something.

 

The details for this storm are not impressive. A legit winter storm will affect the St. Louis area, but it will peter out and stay well south of Chicago before regathering some strength along the East Coast.

 

Still, we could have some slow roads and minor air travel delays late Friday night into Saturday.

• Downstate and areas well south I-80 could get 3+ inches.
• Most of Cook/Dupage will see 1-2 inches, if that.
• Parts of the city and northern suburbs might see a light accumulation or nothing at all.

 

 

 

And yes, this winter has been exceptionally quiet. After a crazy November – the post-Thanksgiving storm was among the top three craziest winter storms I’ve ever experienced here – and a week or two of legit cold, everything went very mild and very quiet. This is right up there among the “warmest” and least-snowy six-week winter periods on record.

• Yesterday marked the first below-normal temperature day in a month, breaking a string that began on December 11^th.
• The snow drought has been pretty incredible. At just 1.6” this is the fourth-least snow we’ve ever had from Dec. 1 to Jan. 9.
  • November was so crazy – 12.7” officially, including the fifth-highest single storm snowfall total ever recorded in November  – that we’re still running ahead of the normal season-to-date pace despite receiving so little in December and January.
  • I don’t know if November has ever been the snowiest month of a winter season, but 12.7” is above average for any month so we have a chance of doing it this year. I doubt that has ever happened and I’ll try to find out.
• There is no significant, sustained cold weather or any major storms on the 10-day horizon

 

As a side note, time flies.

• We’re a month past the earliest sunset, 2 ½ weeks past the solstice, and almost a week past the latest sunrise.
• We’re adding well over a minute of daylight per day, and two weeks from now we’ll be adding more than two minutes per day.
• The coldest week, on average, is next week.
• We’re almost at the halfway mark for accumulating snowfall. (Snow is also back-weighted in the season, and once we get to late February and March the snow that does fall tends to melt pretty quickly unlike the snow that falls in December/January and lasts for weeks.)

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Blizzard Warning

Sorry for one more email but this is really exceptional: NWS just added Cook and Dupage to a Blizzard Warning until 9:00 tomorrow morning.

The low continues to deepen and conditions are atrocious in Iowa. Many major roads are closed and impassable. The switch to snow is beginning across Chicago and the snow will intensify from west to east around 5-6pm. The worst conditions will arrive with heavy snow and winds over 40 mph (gusting to 50+) from 9pm through midnight. Snow totals are largely unchanged from prior models (see below; I'm taking the under by an inch or two, especially along the lake, but that doesn't change the fact that this is a big, nasty storm).

The very sharp line between rain/snow and light/heavy remains in place, running SW to NE right through the area. 10+ inches of heavy, wet snow will be separated by only 10-20 miles from a little slushy accumulation.

The airports are already a mess and by 8-9pm tonight the roads will be very tough. Hopefully crews can catch up by tomorrow morning but we'll see...

(Reminder: a blizzard is actually a specific term defined by three or more consecutive hours of 35+ mph sustained winds that cause blowing or falling snow to create visibility below 1/4 mile. There is no threshold for snowfall accumulation that pertains to a blizzard.)


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last storm update

This powerhouse storm is still barreling across the middle of the country, although the forward motion has slowed. Rain this morning will be later to transition to snow this afternoon. Best guess is rain or a rain-snow mix until 12-2 pm far NW, 2-4pm near suburbs, and after sunset in the city. 

Best guess remains 8+ inches far NW -- Lake and McHenry counties remain in the bull's-eye -- with amounts tapering rapidly to the SE. 3-6+ inches for most suburbs toward O'Hare, and 1-2" right along the lakefront from Lincoln Park south to the Indiana border. 

One moderate change is that the wind field is expanding and intensifying. Gusts of 45+ mph are likely across the whole area tonight. Airports will have a very tough time after sunset, and even driving will be a challenge tonight in many places. 

The Winter Storm Warning is in effect from noon today until 9:00 tomorrow morning. The good news is that we should get a few more hours in the "good" travel window this afternoon on the roads and at the airports, but the morning commute could be somewhat of a problem tomorrow. The worst conditions will arrive well after sunset and be gone by sunrise, but lingering snow showers and the cleanup effort could make for slower travel times tomorrow. 

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Winter Storm Warning

Well, so much for the under – the entire area is under a Winter Storm Warning from late morning Sunday to pre-dawn Monday, and the snow totals are looking more impressive with each iteration. This is a serious storm.

 

Here is the best guess for now:

 

• Temps in the 40s will support rain developing near dawn. Light, on/off rain will continue through the morning before the switch to snow begins some time after noon (beginning in the W/NW).
• Areas to the far west and northwest will see snow first, near or shortly after noon, and even if snow melts at the onset the snowfall rates of 1+ inch/hour will quickly overwhelm road crews. Travel will be problematic by mid-afternoon. Flights – especially at O’Hare – are going to be a mess beyond 12:00 or so. Expect widespread cancellations and delays.
  • Totals near O’Hare and the areas to the west and north – especially McHenry and Lake counties – could run to 8+ inches.
• The city will see a later switch to snow, and the rain-snow line will be set up roughly parallel to I-55. Snow may be as late as 3-4pm in the city. Totals could range from 4-8” in the far NW sections to 1-2” in the Loop and southern areas.
• Areas to the far SE, near the lake and Indiana border, will see the least snow and may not get much beyond a slushy inch or so
• Snow will be very heavy and wet.
• Winds will gust to 30-40+ mph. Power outages are a distinct risk.
• Thundersnow is possible!

 

 

A quick note of caution is needed. If you wanted to create a difficult forecast, you’d want a powerful, developing low with a shifting track; early-season conditions, with an urban heat island and a warm lake; and a very sharp rain-snow line across a densely populated area. We have all of that with storm. The “bust potential” with the storm is low – there is a powerhouse coming, it’s just a matter of the precise location – but a tiny difference of 5-10 miles could mean the difference between one inch of snow and one foot of snow. Keep that in mind with everything for tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

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Winter Storm Watch -- Sunday night

Snowvember rolls on after a brief shot of mild air yesterday and today, and we've just been upgraded to a Winter Storm Watch tomorrow (Sunday). This storm has been monitored for days, but it is really coming together and tracking south of its original projection. 

With temps pushing 50 today it may not feel like winter, but our exceptionally cold November will return tomorrow after morning temps near 40 start to slide and rain changes to snow. Winds will also be an issue, gusting to 30-40+ and causing visibility issues (especially in open areas). Snow will be heaviest to the west, and totals will decrease rapidly from northwest to southeast. There is a good chance of 6+ inches far west toward DeKalb, while areas in Chicago -- especially near the lake -- will see far less accumulation. For now, I'd put the 50% probability total at 4-6 inches in far NW and N suburbs; 3-4 inches at O'Hare; 1-3 inches at Midway and Loop; and a trace to 1" far S and SE. Some projections are already up to 6-9" NW and 3-6" right through the city, but I'll take the under on that for now. It is still early, the track has been shifting, and as with all early-season storms the bust potential is significant. I will send an update tonight or tomorrow morning as details come together.

Especially at the onset of the rain-to-snow transition the snow will be heavy and wet. Warm surface temps should help it melt at first, but heavy snowfall rates will likely overwhelm road crews by mid-/late-afternoon, causing at least some problems on the roads. The timing in general is terrible given the busy travel schedule on the Sunday after Thanksgiving. Air travel will see delays given that heavy snow will be impacting areas from the central Rockies to the Upper Midwest. Chicago airports Driving west, especially through western Illinois, Iowa, and northern Missouri, is going to be problematic. 

The good news is that the snow should end overnight, so hopefully roads will be clear and travel will be OK but the Monday morning rush. It will be cold, though, with near-record temperatures 

Note: this is old and the Winter Storm Watch has been extended to the west and south to include Chicago.

 

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