Winter Storm Warning

Well, so much for the under – the entire area is under a Winter Storm Warning from late morning Sunday to pre-dawn Monday, and the snow totals are looking more impressive with each iteration. This is a serious storm.

 

Here is the best guess for now:

 

• Temps in the 40s will support rain developing near dawn. Light, on/off rain will continue through the morning before the switch to snow begins some time after noon (beginning in the W/NW).
• Areas to the far west and northwest will see snow first, near or shortly after noon, and even if snow melts at the onset the snowfall rates of 1+ inch/hour will quickly overwhelm road crews. Travel will be problematic by mid-afternoon. Flights – especially at O’Hare – are going to be a mess beyond 12:00 or so. Expect widespread cancellations and delays.
  • Totals near O’Hare and the areas to the west and north – especially McHenry and Lake counties – could run to 8+ inches.
• The city will see a later switch to snow, and the rain-snow line will be set up roughly parallel to I-55. Snow may be as late as 3-4pm in the city. Totals could range from 4-8” in the far NW sections to 1-2” in the Loop and southern areas.
• Areas to the far SE, near the lake and Indiana border, will see the least snow and may not get much beyond a slushy inch or so
• Snow will be very heavy and wet.
• Winds will gust to 30-40+ mph. Power outages are a distinct risk.
• Thundersnow is possible!

 

 

A quick note of caution is needed. If you wanted to create a difficult forecast, you’d want a powerful, developing low with a shifting track; early-season conditions, with an urban heat island and a warm lake; and a very sharp rain-snow line across a densely populated area. We have all of that with storm. The “bust potential” with the storm is low – there is a powerhouse coming, it’s just a matter of the precise location – but a tiny difference of 5-10 miles could mean the difference between one inch of snow and one foot of snow. Keep that in mind with everything for tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

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