Fwd: WWA

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 2, 2016 at 4:44 PM
Subject: WWA
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>

We're under a Winter Weather Advisory for snow. The corridor along I-80 is most favored for snow, and the far north (Lake County) is excluded from the advisory area. Most of the region will see an inch or two of snow, maybe 3" on the high side. The snow will move in tonight between 9pm and midnight, continuing through tomorrow afternoon. Snowfall rates will never be heavy, but unfortunately they could be light or even moderate during the morning rush hour. Some effect on the roads and the airports is likely. 

Beyond that, a major pattern shift is in the cards. A wet (mostly rain) system on Saturday will yield to a bright and mild day on Sunday. Then the warm-up begins. Mid-60s and even a 70+ is coming by the early and middle part of next week.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL  257 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016    ILZ012>014-020>022-INZ001-002-030500-  /O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0007.160303T0500Z-160303T2000Z/  KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-LAKE IN-PORTER-  INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OSWEGO...  MORRIS...JOLIET...GARY...VALPARAISO  257 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016    ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO  2 PM CST THURSDAY...    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER  WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS  EVENING TO 2 PM CST THURSDAY.    * TIMING...EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN    DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.    * PRECIPITATION RATES...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR    BETWEEN THE EARLY AND MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.    * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES    ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES.    * VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES.    * IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DURING    THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY.    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...    A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL  CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED  ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.  THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN  BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.  

Fwd: mild then snow then very mild

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Feb 29, 2016 at 6:23 AM
Subject: mild then snow then very mild
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>

After another spectacular weekend with sun and mild temps, we're heading into one more pullback toward winter conditions. 

Lake and McHenry counties are under a Winter Storm Warning from tonight through Tuesday morning. ~2" along the Cook County border to up to 6" along the Wisconsin border is the most likely scenario for now. But given that this is a strong but small and fast-moving storm, with lots of warm air at the ground, it wouldn't take much to alter this forecast. 

South of Lake/McHenry, DuPage, Cook and the city of Chicago are under an advisory for sleet and snow. Rain or mix tonight should transition to some freezing rain and eventually light snow tomorrow morning. Accumulations should be fairly light. Given how warm the ground is I would hope the roads will stay in decent shape, but some impact on the morning commute cannot be ruled out. 

The rest of the work week looks dry with below-average high temperatures in the 30s. The weekend will mark the beginning of a warm-up and it looks decent in its own right. And although we're still too far away to have much precision, the signals are in place for a major early-season warm spell beyond the weekend. The early to middle portion of next week (March 8-10) could well see temps in the 60s and 70s. As noted in one model below, even an 80 is not impossible, which would be a record for the date. 

Fwd: storm update

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Feb 24, 2016 at 7:55 AM
Subject: storm update
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>

Not a lot has changed overnight, but there are still a lot of moving parts. Dry air is funneling into the area on strong NE winds right now, but the storm is in progress and snow is flying to our SE. 

There is still high-confidence in blizzard conditions and 6-10" of snow in far SE Cook and NW Indiana. Kankakee-Hammond-Gary are under a Blizzard Warning. Any travel east of Chicago is going to be difficult if not impossible. Most of Michigan is going to get socked too. 

There is much less confidence in the snow totals over much of the Chicago region. The band of heavy snow is very tight but this is a strong storm, so small changes can make a big difference. Right now the line of heaviest snow looks likely to stay near or SE of I-55. 

Best guess right now remains 2-6" over most of the city and near suburbs, with amounts higher to the SE and less to the NW. Areas in Dupage and Lake counties may only see 1-2". 

The precip should begin or change over by late morning. The worst conditions will be mid afternoon through evening, so affected areas could have a very rough evening commute. 

The snow will be heavy and wet but the strong winds will still whip it around. Visibility is going to be poor this afternoon and evening. Winds are already strong, so flight delays and cancellations are likely to mount throughout the day. 

The only mitigating factor is that the recent warmth and bare ground, combined with the warm temps today and during the snowfall, will make road treatment and conditions better than they otherwise would be. 

Fwd: Winter Storm Warning / Winter Weather Advisory

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pordway@anabaticllc.com>
Date: Tue, Feb 23, 2016 at 9:40 PM
Subject: Re: Winter Storm Warning / Winter Weather Advisory
To: "Philip C. Ordway" <pcordway@gmail.com>
Cc: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>


I should have waited for the update from the model guidance and NWS, because things continue to come together. A further turn to the NW from a couple of credible models puts 8-10" down at MDW and 4-8" through a large part of the city. Again, there is a very tight gradient here so it wouldn't take much for this to swing either way. Still not much for northern and far western burbs but things could really come together over a good part of the area. And with wind gusts of 40-50 mph the impact will be significant. No change to timing, with worst conditions in the afternoon and early evening.




> On Feb 23, 2016, at 8:52 PM, Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> NWS has upgraded Cook County to a Winter Storm Warning. That is a little misleading though -- the storm is about as strong as advertised and has wobbled a touch to the NW toward us, but only far southern (and especially far southeastern) portions of Cook deserve the warning. Most of the city and especially far NW Cook (some 50 miles away) will see far more modest impacts. The worst of it will be along the lake shore near the Indiana border, where 4-8" totals and near blizzard conditions are possible. Totals will diminish rapidly to the NW. 2-4" for most of the city and maybe 1-2" for western and northern suburbs. Both airports could see a few inches and high winds will be an issue so flight delays and cancellations are likely. The snow will start tomorrow morning but warm temps and the warm ground should help the morning road conditions. Tomorrow afternoon and evening could be more problematic for traffic.
>
> On the upside the snow won't stick around long. Temps on Saturday will be near or above 50 with lots of sun.
>
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Fwd: Winter Storm Warning / Winter Weather Advisory

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Feb 23, 2016 at 8:51 PM
Subject: Winter Storm Warning / Winter Weather Advisory
To: go@blogger.com, Chicago severe weather <chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com>


NWS has upgraded Cook County to a Winter Storm Warning. That is a little misleading though -- the storm is about as strong as advertised and has wobbled a touch to the NW toward us, but only far southern (and especially far southeastern) portions of Cook deserve the warning. Most of the city and especially far NW Cook (some 50 miles away) will see far more modest impacts. The worst of it will be along the lake shore near the Indiana border, where 4-8" totals and near blizzard conditions are possible. Totals will diminish rapidly to the NW. 2-4" for most of the city and maybe 1-2" for western and northern suburbs. Both airports could see a few inches and high winds will be an issue so flight delays and cancellations are likely. The snow will start tomorrow morning but warm temps and the warm ground should help the morning road conditions. Tomorrow afternoon and evening could be more problematic for traffic.

On the upside the snow won't stick around long. Temps on Saturday will be near or above 50 with lots of sun.

Fwd: mid-week storm potential

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Philip C. Ordway <pcordway@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Feb 22, 2016 at 2:06 PM
Subject: mid-week storm potential
To: "go@blogger.com" <go@blogger.com>, chicagosevereweather@googlegroups.com

I hope everyone enjoyed the spectacular weather on Friday and Saturday. Most places hit 60F on both days, even if the winds on Friday were intense. (Those were some of the strongest non-thunderstorm winds I've ever experienced. Officially the gusts were over 60 mph with a few outliers over 70 mph.)

Now we're back into a more seasonal pattern. Wednesday into Wednesday night a strong storm will be climbing through the Ohio River Valley with the potential for heavy snow and high winds on the backside. For now, the best track appears to be far enough to Chicago's SE to prevent most of the snow from coming in here. Some big caveats: this storm looks powerful; it is likely to produce a narrow band of intense snow; and the difference between heavy snow and very little snow is only ~25 miles. A lot can change from this point forward, and even if this track verifies ares in and near Chicago could see an inch or two of snow (especially in locations downwind of a NE wind off of Lake Michigan). Anyone traveling east should have on eye on this -- Michigan could get buried, and further east it will be a windy and wet mess. 

Beyond this storm there isn't much on the horizon. The overall pattern looks seasonal, with lots of highs in the 30s and 40s. A brief shot of cold air is possible in the 7-10 day range but that's about it. 

Forecast

(This is mostly a test to make sure the problem from Saturday has been resolved.)

Snow totals yesterday were generally in the 2-3" range. Temps will hover in the 20s and 30s this week before a big warm up on Friday. Mid-50s look like a good bet. Depending on how much snow cover is around it is possible that some spots will break 60 on Friday (although it does look rainy).