Hurricane Florence -- travel disruptions at best, natural disaster at worst

After a very quiet start to the season a potential catastrophe is looming. Hurricane Florence is undergoing explosive intensification and the forward track looks ominous at best. Currently a Category 2 storm, Florence could be a Category 4 hurricane as soon as tomorrow – the water in its path is very warm, and there is almost no shear aloft to disrupt the convection and circulation.

 

Of course, the standard caveat applies: we are still several days out, and the atmosphere is unpredictable. That said, the data and models are quite reliable down to a reasonable band of location and strength, and the consensus is strong and growing that a major hurricane will make landfall this week on the East Coast. This is an unusual storm, and if the current forecasts verify it would become just the 11^th major (Category 3/4/5) hurricane to make landfall on the east coast since 1851. Given the immense population and property development in the path it could easily become one of the most destructive storms on record.

A summary of where things stand:

 

• Category 2 hurricane with Category 3-4 strength likely within 24 hours
• A projected landfall (greater than 70% confidence) of at least a Category 3 landfall on the East Coast on Thursday/Friday
  • The current best estimate from is a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 140 mph at landfall somewhere near or north of the South Carolina and North Carolina border. For now the most likely track takes it into North Carolina, but a 25-100 mile wobble will have massive implications and cannot be predicted this far in advance. And areas that are hundreds of miles from the exact landfall will suffer damaging winds, surge, and flooding.
    • The 72-hour projection from NHC has Florence at a catastrophic 150 mph sustained. Only one storm on record has ever had 150 mph sustained winds at such a northerly latitude (Helene in 1958).
    • Category 4 at landfall in NC would be the all-time record for northern latitude for a storm of such strength. North Carolina hasn’t seen a landfalling storm of such intensity since 1954. And there are reasonable parallels in terms of intensity to Hurricane Hugo in 1989.
• Soils along much of the Mid-Atlantic coast into the Northeast are already saturated after days of heavy rain in recent days/weeks/months. The forward motion of Florence is likely to be slow, and the rainfall totals – even dozens or hundreds of miles from the ocean – could be disastrous. There are no exact parallels between storms, but as we saw with Harvey last year 20-30+ inches of rain can have horrendous consequences in areas far from any wind threat. The odds of disaster-level flooding on the East Coast are even higher than those of a landfalling hurricane.

 

Anyone living in the area should make plans now to secure property and/or evacuate. Anyone else with travel plans anywhere in the U.S. on Wednesday-Saturday should be prepared for significant delays and disruptions. There are also three more tropical storms (two in the open Atlantic, one in the Gulf) that need to be monitored.

 

 

 

This email is confidential and intended only for the recipient(s). If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender at compliance@anabaticllc.com and delete this message and any attachments. This message is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy any financial instruments. Please see the full disclaimer at www.anabaticllc.com.