bitter cold, light snow

Well, 2017 is going out with a bang. The past two days have logged the coldest temps of the year, and Tuesday-Wednesday was the coldest two-day stretch in almost four years (Jan. ’14). We haven’t quite set any records -- yesterday’s high was the second-lowest ever recorded on December 27^th, and Tuesday’s high tied the record (1925, 1892) -- but this is still among the very coldest weather that Chicago experiences. To highlight how “buckled” the jet stream has been, it was considerably colder* in parts of the U.S. (-36 at Int’l Falls, -17 Lincoln, NE, -4 here) than it was north of the Arctic Circle. When 2018 dawns on Monday morning about 1/3 of the entire Lower 48 could be below zero. So yeah, this is a serious cold outbreak.

 

And it’s not done yet. After a reinforcing shot of cold this weekend there is another one in the middle of next week. By the end of next week there are signs of a pattern flip back to more seasonable temperatures. And while the current pattern may be reminiscent of the brutal 2014 winter, there are some key differences (snow cover, La Niña, etc.) that give relatively little confidence in this pattern persisting into mid-January and beyond. In other words, it wouldn’t be surprising if the winter overall ends up closer to average.

 

In the meantime, most of the country will be stuck in the deep freeze. See the map below for one model’s forecast on Monday (New Year’s Day) – below zero temps stretch all the way into Oklahoma with teens and 20s all the way into Texas and toward the Gulf Coast.

 

In Chicago we’re also going to have at least 2-3 periods of light snow. The good news is that none of these are major storms, and airport delays are likely to be minor at worst. But given the frigid temps even a tiny amount of moisture can fluff up into 1-2” of snow that sticks to the roads.** Round #1 will arrive this afternoon and evening, with a dusting to 1-2” of fluffy snow. Round #2 will include some lake-effect snow tomorrow afternoon and evening; 1-2” looks like a decent bet, with the chance for more in areas to the south and/or downwind of the lake. A third round (again with some lake-effect snow) is possible Saturday night into Sunday.

 

For travelers it is worth monitoring a storm here in the Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday period. There is also some potential for a full-blown Nor’easter blizzard next week as well.

 

 

* Here is your friendly evergreen reminder that wind chill is bogus. Please never use, discuss, or cite wind chill as a number. Even worse is the conflation of the two, as you often see a sentence like “the temperate was xx degrees with the wind chill.” That is beyond dumb. It’s like saying, “I’m eight feet tall with my stilts, and oh by the way my stilts are magical variable-height stilts that constantly shape-shift and no one has ever been able to actually measure their dimensions but meh whatever close enough I’m eight feet tall.”

 

** A typical snow in Chicago has 1 inch of water for every 10 inches of snow. This snow will be so dry that the ratio could be ~30:1!

 

 

This email is confidential and intended only for the recipient(s). If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender at compliance@anabaticllc.com and delete this message and any attachments. This message is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy any financial instruments. Please see the full disclaimer at www.anabaticllc.com.