snow update -- WWA here, major disruptions (WSW/Blizzard) elsewhere

Cold temps and a potent disturbance are coming together to create a pretty strong late-winter storm. The cold has gone far enough south to create sticking snow this morning in Charlotte, NC and Augusta, GA! That is just the prelude, though -- Winter Storm Watches and Blizzard Watches are up for areas to our west and north as well as much of the Northeast Corridor. The entire Chicago area is under a Winter Weather Advisory for 3-6” of snow. At least 2” of sticking snow looks likely for the entire area, and in favored areas (far W/NW and along lake) up to 8” is possible. This is also all but assured to snap our streak of days without 1” of snow at 85 or 86 days. (I believe the all-time record is 87, which is a shame.)

 

This is going to be a fairly long duration snow given the size and scope of the low. Despite the beautiful sunshine this morning an overcast will develop quickly by late morning or early afternoon and snow could be flying by early evening. Moderate snow could fall off and on tonight with considerable snow tomorrow morning. As the low moves east the backside NE flow could add some lake-effect through Tuesday morning.

 

Travel disruptions should be expected tomorrow – roads and airports will be slow for the morning rush, if not beyond.

 

The meat of the storm will pass through the MSP area and the Mississippi Valley into Wisconsin before swinging east. 4-8” of snow, if not more, looks likely there. And the real problem looms on the East Coast. The track of the low, as always, is tough to pinpoint, but the best guess we have right points to a very potent storm tracking the coast in the favored location for heavy snow. Large portion of the NYC and New England population centers are under Blizzard Watches and the rest are under Winter Storm Watches. 4-6” in DC quickly trends toward a foot or more from NJ through NYC into NE/Boston. Right now the 50% probability is for a foot of snow right through the NYC-CT-Boston corridor, and one good model is leaning toward 14-16” or more. This far into March it would normally be hard to draw enough cold air into the storm, but it s 9-degrees in Boston this morning, so that problem has already been solved. Major travel disruptions are likely from Monday night through most/all of Tuesday.  

 

 

 

 

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