Summer 2015 in Chicago closed slightly on the cool side -- roughly the 35th percentile for warmth. June was certainly cool and wet but the rest the summer was unremarkable. We had a significant run of consecutive highs >80 but fewer than average highs >90. There has also been an abundance of tornadoes in the NWS Chicago region -- 29 confirmed so far -- which sets the all-time record.
And now that summer is technically over, the first week of September goes down as the warmest of the year based on average temperature.
Looking ahead, there is a likely resurgence of warmth next week. After temps peak in the 60s Friday and through the weekend we're likely to get in back to the 80s next week.
And looking ahead to winter, there is a very strong El Nino in progress. The implications are significant, but it's also easy to over-extrapolate. For example, the North Pacific is also very warm, which could cause a "blocking pattern" similar to the one experienced at times in the prior two winters. That's not likely, but it's possible. So yes, the prior winters with a strong El Nino 1982-83 and 1997-98 -- were mild in Chicago, but that's not something to write in stone just yet. The odds are definitely in our favor to have a milder winter than the prior one (and certainly milder than 2013-14) but exactly how this plays out is TBD -- seasonal forecasts made a few months in advance are not especially good just yet.
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