Bad news then good news, plus a recap of Monday night's storms.
Bad news:
- We are again under an "Enhanced" threat of severe storms tonight -- the whole area is outlooked, but south is more likely than north.
- The whole area is under a Flash Flood Watch starting tonight and running through Thursday morning.
- Several waves of heavy rain are likely to emerge from Iowa and traverse the area tonight. Some storms may pop this evening, but 12-6am is most likely for the heavy storms.
- Some spots might be missed but 1" looks like a good bet for most locations, with some getting 3-5" of rain if things come together. Lake County might get off easy, while Will County and points south are more favored for heavy rain.
- There is 2.0" of precipitable water in the lower atmosphere -- that is almost off the charts for this area. We're also sitting right on the edge of a huge dome of heat (triple-digit highs today on the Plains). Those two factors have often combined in the past with explosive results.
- Some areas have already seen 7-8" of rain this month, and the whole area is running well ahead of normal for rain -- soils are saturated and the flood risk is higher than normal.
- After many locations saw ~4" of rain (expected roughly once per decade) just 10 days ago on the 15th, a second such event would be truly unusual and potentially very problematic in flood prone areas.
Good news:
- Starting tomorrow, this exceptionally wet and stormy pattern looks like it will break down. From this distance, it looks like the Friday-Monday period should be sunny and dry with temps in the 70s and 80s.
- Tom Skilling is back from his umpteenth three-week vacation of the year.
Monday storms:
- The severe storms that came through far western and southern sections of the area on Monday night produced nine tornadoes.
- One tornado near Coal City was rated a strong EF-3, with estimated winds near 160 mph -- the damage was impressive. There were seven injuries but none serious, and that seems miraculous given that this tornado occurred late at night and was obscured by a lot of rain.
- This is the strongest Chicago-area tornado since the Plainfield F5 of August 1990. (The monster EF-4 that hit Rochelle/Fairdale in April was not technically in the Chicago MSA). The Coal City tornado's path was 16.5 miles long and three-quarters of a mile wide at its peak.
- Imagine this storm track about 30-40 miles (a rounding error) to the northeast...
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