Tornado Watch today (4/9/15) to 11pm

NWS/SPC has just issued a Tornado Watch for our entire area until 11pm. The outlook calls for a "60% chance of 2+ tornadoes, 40% 1+ strong." 

More detail: "A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE

     SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS         TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE       SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5         INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

I thought they were on the fence about issuing any watches today, and about a half hour ago they issued a tornado watch for areas well west of us (past Rockford). But things are apparently coming together enough, in their opinion, to warrant a watch. This is a reasonable serious situation -- a similar tornado threat in Chicago might occur once or twice a year, if that. 

To update the overall outlook from yesterday, the entire Chicago area remains in the "Enhanced" risk area for sever storm development. That means that a severe storm is 30% likely to develop at some point today within 25 miles of any given point within the area. Again, the leaves a 70% chance that severe storms will not develop today. And of course the forecast could verify if a severe storm develops 25 miles away but does not impact your specific location. The same of course applies to the tornado watch. 

Any severe storms that do develop today are most likely from mid-afternoon through early evening -- call it 4pm to 9pm. We're likely to get at least two discrete rounds of potentially severe weather, so keep an eye open even after a storm has just passed. This also looks like a potentially low-coverage event -- a few discrete but powerful supercells may develop and hit hard in certain areas while other locations get nothing. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours are likely even if we avoid the severe threshold. And after several rounds of heavy rain this morning the ground is likely saturated in many places.

Between now and the development of any storms it will be cloudy with some peaks of sun and near 70 degrees in most spots. (It's only in the 40s well to our north due to the lake and the approaching cold front; the contract and plenty of available moisture is driving these storms.)

As mentioned yesterday, the mid-range outlook is quite warm and will likely feature above-normal rainfall. Temps tomorrow should climb to the mid/upper 50s in the afternoon with a lot of sun, and the weekend looks nice with more sun and 60s or even 70s by Sunday afternoon. More 60s and 70s with interspersed rain events looks likely for next week.