new severe t-storm warning

A new severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for a cell approaching the SW suburbs. 70-80 mph gusts and large hail have been reported. The storm is approaching Joliet and will be near Naperville shortly after 9:00pm. If intact it would move through the western suburbs and into Chicago between 9:30 and 10:00pm. It is a nasty storm right now and needs to be monitored -- it could intensify further or even produce a tornado.

Other storms remain severe but are moving out of the area. Far northern areas near the WI line are under a severe warning now but will be clear soon. The NW and N suburbs were especially hard hit. Damage west of the area near Rochelle is horrendous. There was a strong, long-track tornado on the ground for several dozen miles given early indications. The pictures and video are staggering.

The cold front is right behind this round of storms, so once this goes by we'll be in the clear. Areas should be into calm weather by 10:00pm far west and 11:00 to 11:30 near Lake Michigan. 

Tornado crossing I-90 bw Rockford and Chicago

A massive tornado is still on the ground. It just crossed I-90 and is heading into McHenry. Harvard and Woodstock and anywhere nearby need to shelter immediately. You won't see a clearer, stronger tornado in Illinois than this.

Massive tornado near far NW suburbs

A massive, deadly tornado just destroyed a small town SE of Rockford and is rapidly approaching the far NW suburbs. Dekalb going into mchenry County.

Another large PDS tornado west near Dixon.

PDD tornado near Rockford

This is very serious. Do not mess around if you happen to be near Rockford.

There are other tornado warned storms in the area as well but none in the immediate city or suburbs. More development to our SW threatens for the next 1-2 hours.


709 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF KIRKLAND...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ROCKFORD AIRPORT... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. A SECOND TORNADO
COULD FORM JUST EAST OF THE CURRENT TORNADO AND COME VERY CLOSE TO
THE TOWN OF KIRKLAND.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY
BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES
WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO
HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
KIRKLAND AROUND 715 PM CDT.
KINGSTON AROUND 720 PM CDT.
GENOA AROUND 725 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE DAVIS
JUNCTION.

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...
I-39 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 104 AND 115.

Tornado warning for Rockford

A tornado-warned storm is moving into Rockford. Cells in this cluster recently produced a confirmed and large tornado near the Quad Cities.

Non-severe but significant thunderstorms are approaching Chicago's western suburbs right now.

More to follow as these storms develop and move rapidly to the northeast.

Tornado Watch today (4/9/15) to 11pm

NWS/SPC has just issued a Tornado Watch for our entire area until 11pm. The outlook calls for a "60% chance of 2+ tornadoes, 40% 1+ strong." 

More detail: "A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE

     SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS         TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE       SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5         INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

I thought they were on the fence about issuing any watches today, and about a half hour ago they issued a tornado watch for areas well west of us (past Rockford). But things are apparently coming together enough, in their opinion, to warrant a watch. This is a reasonable serious situation -- a similar tornado threat in Chicago might occur once or twice a year, if that. 

To update the overall outlook from yesterday, the entire Chicago area remains in the "Enhanced" risk area for sever storm development. That means that a severe storm is 30% likely to develop at some point today within 25 miles of any given point within the area. Again, the leaves a 70% chance that severe storms will not develop today. And of course the forecast could verify if a severe storm develops 25 miles away but does not impact your specific location. The same of course applies to the tornado watch. 

Any severe storms that do develop today are most likely from mid-afternoon through early evening -- call it 4pm to 9pm. We're likely to get at least two discrete rounds of potentially severe weather, so keep an eye open even after a storm has just passed. This also looks like a potentially low-coverage event -- a few discrete but powerful supercells may develop and hit hard in certain areas while other locations get nothing. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours are likely even if we avoid the severe threshold. And after several rounds of heavy rain this morning the ground is likely saturated in many places.

Between now and the development of any storms it will be cloudy with some peaks of sun and near 70 degrees in most spots. (It's only in the 40s well to our north due to the lake and the approaching cold front; the contract and plenty of available moisture is driving these storms.)

As mentioned yesterday, the mid-range outlook is quite warm and will likely feature above-normal rainfall. Temps tomorrow should climb to the mid/upper 50s in the afternoon with a lot of sun, and the weekend looks nice with more sun and 60s or even 70s by Sunday afternoon. More 60s and 70s with interspersed rain events looks likely for next week. 

resending -- new blog; severe weather possible, heavy rain likely

We've already had our first technical difficulties, so I'm resending this. Everyone should be added to the Google Group now and get this second post that way rather than directly from me. 

-----------------------------------

After many requests I've decided to join the 21st century -- or at least the first decade of the 21st century -- and post these weather updates and a few other resources on a blog. 

http://chicagosevereweather.blogspot.com/

I'm doing this now for two reasons. First, it's easier to create a Google Group than it is to maintain an email list and send the emails directly. Second, this will leave a permanent, easily accessible archive. After that "surprise" Monday-morning snow a few weeks ago -- I took the under on 1-2" of snow and we got 4-6" -- I heard about my shortcomings from more than a few of you. That's ironic because I didn't get any flack for the Super Bowl Snowstorm on February 1st, which I missed to a far greater degree. And I never hear about it when things go "right," so maybe I'm just doing this to amuse myself, but whatever. This blog will provide a platform for everything, whatever that's worth. 

You should have just received a welcome message from the Google Group. After this post you'll only get emails directly from the blog (via the Google Group) when there's a new post. You should get this message twice -- once from me directly and once from the Google Group.  Please email me if something isn't working. 

Now for the good stuff:

• After a very dry spring so far the pattern has turned wet. It is possible that we'll see as much rain (3-4") in the next 10 days as we've seen all year.
• Thunderstorms are likely late tonight. Some may produce downpours and hail.
• An outbreak of severe weather is possible tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon and evening. We're currently at an "Enhanced" level of risk for severe storms, which is the middle point of a five-point scale of risk. As always, the timing and specifics are difficult to pinpoint, but stay tuned. It's not going to rain all day, and it will be nice and warm (likely over 70 degrees) even down to the lakefront. But at this point any outdoor plans for Thursdayafternoon/evening look likely to be impacted, and there is decent potential for some really strong storms. 
• After this chilly weather things look likely to warm up. The 5-10 day models are all pointing to above-normal temps, so there is a good chance we'll see some warmth (60s and 70s in the afternoon) this weekend through next week, at least for those locations that escape Lake Michigan cooling. 
• In other news it is (or has been) snowing across parts of MN/WI and upper New England. So there's that.