severe storm and flooding threat

Just a quick heads-up on the potential for big storms later today. This morning’s round of non-severe storms has largely moved through the area, and from roughly 10:00 onward it will likely be dry. The rest of today will be hot and humid, setting the trigger for potentially severe storms later this afternoon and into this evening as a cold front slides across Wisconsin and far northern Illinois. Storm chances are low through 4-5pm but they elevate quickly toward evening.

 

The set up tonight is pretty impressive and I would not be surprised to see significant severe weather and/or flooding. Two, three, or even four rounds of storms are possible, and in certain areas that get hit multiple times the rain totals could become a problem. 1-3” is possible across a broad section of the area, and the hardest-hit localized spots could see a multiple of that. Beyond the risk of localized flooding some of the storms may become severe, with high winds the primary threat. Both the severe and the flooding threats are higher toward the Wisconsin line, with the threat diminishing south and east of I-55.

 

Storms may linger into tomorrow morning. Temps will be much cooler, but Thursday and Friday look sunny and very nice. Temps into Labor Day weekend should rebound but remain much cooler than recent days, with highs topping out in the 80s. Most of the weekend looks dry, with just isolated and passing showers/storms on Saturday and Monday.  

 

 

 

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning -- Cook and DuPage

A severe storm packing winds of 60-70+ mph is approaching from the WNW and will impact DuPage and Cook over the next hour. One core of high winds is between Wheaton and Elmhurst, with another just south of downtown Naperville. Along with the potential for damaging winds expect brief heavy downpours and lightning.

 

Storms will continue through the afternoon and evening with isolated coverage. Very comfortable weather arrives tomorrow with several days in a row of almost unlimited sunshine and daytime highs in the 70s and 80s.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Severe thunderstorm watch

We're under a severe thunderstorm watch until early evening. Storms will be isolated (low coverage) but they bring a considerable high-wind threat. Storms should clear by 9pm or so.

Tomorrow through Wednesday should be hot but less so than yesterday and today, with only a slight chance of storms.

Confirmed tornado in Will County

Damaging tornado confirmed in Will County southwest of Frankfort and heading NE. Frankfort and then Tinley Park and Country Club Hills would be next on that line. Pay close attention in the area.

heavy rain -- flash flood watch

A strong flow of moisture has taken hold and periodic showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the area today, tonight, and tomorrow. We’ll dry out this weekend but in the meantime many areas could see 1-5 inches of rain through tomorrow. Given many have already seen 10-18 inches of rain since May 1^st (officially more than a foot at ORD, the all-time rainiest period since May 1^st on record) the ground is very saturated. Flood prone areas and basement sump pumps are going to get a workout.

 

 

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heat --> storms

Just a quick note about the threat for some severe storms tonight. No official watch has been issued yet but some very strong storms along the Wisconsin line will be impacting the far northern suburbs soon. There has been a lot of humid air “pooling” ahead of this cold front, so if any storms sit in one place for any period of time could lead to very heavy rainfall and some flooding (especially given the saturated ground). Several parts of the area will see 1-2” rain totals from these storms, and a few spots could see more than that. For now the threat of damaging winds looks fairly low in the Chicago area.

 

And speaking of flooding and saturated ground, those noisy storms that came through early Saturday morning were not severe by any definition. Several areas saw 1-2 inches of rain in about an hour, which is an impressive rate. But given the record or near-record rains since May 1^st, the saturated ground was the only reason there was such notable standing water or minor flooding. 1-2” of rain from a thunderstorm in Chicago – with winds well below the severe threshold too – is a common occurrence in the summer. Those specific storms were also not a very good bet to make it as far south as they actually did.

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weather recap

Due to popular demand I’m sending a quick recap on our wild and crazy weather. Apologies for violating the severe/disruptive threshold; since we’ve had almost zero severe weather this spring hopefully no one will mind.

 

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After the coldest April in Chicago’s weather history* the records keep falling.

 

• We’ve officially just recorded our wettest* May in history. O’Hare has recorded 8.21 inches as compared to a 30-year average of 3.68” and the old record of 7.59 inches (taken in 1945 at Midway).
  • May 2018 is the third month out of the past 11 to post more than 7.5 inches of rain (July and October 2017). That is incredible.
  • Yesterday’s rain was also due to a passing (sub)tropical storm, a very rare occurrence in Chicago and unprecedented in May. Dating to the first occurrence in 1886, tropical cyclone remnants have affected the greater Chicago area only 15 times. Alberto yesterday is the only storm outside the more typical June-October season.
  • May 2018 was also the warmest in 41 years* and third-warmest* dating to 1871.
• Last weekend was also one for the record books.
  • The Memorial Day weekend had never before* seen three consecutive highs of at least 90F.
  • The 97 on Sunday and the 95 on Monday both tied the daily record* high.
  • The 97 on Sunday was also the highest official temperature in Chicago since a 99 in July 2012.

 

 

 

* Don’t be fooled by comparability problems (i.e., the usual problems when comparing records taken downtown/Midway/O’Hare).

• May 2018 saw only 4.2 inches of rain at Midway, and it is entirely possible (albeit still unlikely) that had the official site been located elsewhere the official May record could still be standing. Some areas (Barrington, Elgin, Lombard) saw 3-4+ inches yesterday alone, while a few miles away O’Hare officially recorded 0.9” of rain. Warm-weather heavy rain events are fluky and totals can vary widely across a relatively small area.
• There have been snowier Aprils but April 2018 was the coldest May Chicago has seen by any reasonable standards.

 

 

 

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