Hurricane Michael

I’ve been hesitant to send anything about Hurricane Michael because I haven’t had any questions about it, unlike with prior hurricanes. (As a reminder, the threshold here is severe/disruptive weather in the Chicago area, with occasional exceptions for national weather catastrophes that are likely to rank in the top 25 all-time for damage.)

 

But unfortunately this does require a quick note, because Hurricane Michael is likely to be a true disaster.

 

Later today Michael is going to make landfall on the Florida coast as a Category 4 storm. Unlike Harvey and Florence – both of which were horrendous storms that killed dozens of people and did tens of billions of dollars in damage – this storm is packing a flooding threat and a terrifying wind field. Current *sustained* winds are 145 mph. If that carries through to landfall this will be one of the strongest storms to ever hit the U.S. Damage at that level is catastrophic. And it does look likely that the storm will retain its strength, if not strengthen further, before making landfall in a few hours.

 

This is also a worst-case scenario because unlike Florence, for example, Michael has exploded in intensity just before landfall. I hope I’m wrong, but there seems to be much less attention on this storm compared to others. The track and overall threat has been in discussion for over a week now, but the rapid intensification – always the trickiest part – is coming at the last moment and may be catching people off guard. The area at risk is highly populated and vulnerable to flooding. Michael is large – nearly 2x the area of hurricane-force winds as Andrew had in 1992 – and producing a storm surge that could be 10-12 feet.

 

It doesn’t get much worse than this for the Florida Panhandle.

 

 

 

 

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severe storm and heavy rain threat

Clouds and occasional sun will dominate the afternoon, but precip should be limited to just a passing storm or light drizzle. Tonight, a line of strong storms associated with a cold front will pass through the area and main bring heavy rain, frequent lightning, and the potential for damaging winds. Areas to the north and west are most favored for storms, as points from the city to the south and east may be spared. Unfortunately, 2-4+ inches of rain could fall over still-waterlogged areas in the northern suburbs and into Wisconsin.

 

Daytime temps this week will oscillate between the 60s and 80s as a front flips back and forth through the area, bringing ongoing chances for rain too (but not all-day washouts).

 

 

 

One model at just after 9:00 pm local:

 

 

 

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