Rain

Since a couple people have asked, please pardon this non-severe update regarding the Halloween rain.

The bad news is that light to moderate rain is very likely for the whole area through most of the day.

The good news is that it is likely to taper to light sprinkles or drizzle late afternoon toward sunset and it will end completely at some point after sunset (clearing from west to east). So, with patience most kids should get a shot at some trick-or-treating today.

The best news is that tomorrow through next week looks spectacular. Temps will warm into the 60s tomorrow and spend most of the first half of the week climbing into the low or mid 70s with lots of sun.

Hurricane Patricia

This has nothing to do with Chicago, so forgive me. But this situation is just astounding and potentially catastrophic.

Hurricane Patricia was a tropical storm wandering off the coast of Mexico just over 24 hours ago. Now it is the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific basins, and pretty much identical to the strongest hurricane ever recorded anywhere on the planet. Sustained winds are 200 mph with central pressure of 880 mb, and the storm is taking dead aim at the coast of Mexico. If NHC is right and it actually strengthens to a landfall wind speed of 205 it will be the strongest landfalling hurricane ever recorded. Beyond the EF5-tornado-level winds across a large area, there could well be a storm surge of 20+ feet. Given the short notice and poor communication, numerous bays and inlets, mountainous terrain inland...the potential exists for a horrendous human catastrophe. 

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015  400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015    Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate  that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and  SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt.  This makes Patricia  the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's  area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the  eastern North Pacific basins.  The minimum central pressure  estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for  our AOR.  It seems incredible that even more strengthening could  occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery  shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing.  If the trend  toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the  intensity to at least level off later today.  The official forecast  shows only a little more strengthening before landfall.  Given the  very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after  landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than  predicted by the normal inland decay rate.    Recent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning  toward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt.  The  track forecast scenario remains about the same.  Patricia should  continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level  anticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to  the northwest tonight and Saturday.  The official track forecast is  somewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between  the GFS and ECMWF solutions.    The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone  near the Texas coast over the weekend.  Based on the predicted  upper-level winds, this system should be non-tropical in nature.  However this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of  moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally  heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico  coastal area within the next few days.  Refer to statements from  local National Weather Service forecast offices for details.    We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters  for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking  hurricane.  Clearly, without their data, we would never have known  just how strong a tropical cyclone it was.    KEY MESSAGES:    1.  Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the  hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely  dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.  Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning  area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as  tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area.  Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning  area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be  catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes  landfall.    2.  In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is  likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the  Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing  into Saturday.    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS    INIT  23/0900Z 17.0N 105.5W  175 KT 200 MPH   12H  23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W  180 KT 205 MPH   24H  24/0600Z 21.7N 104.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND   36H  24/1800Z 24.5N 102.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW   48H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED    $$  Forecaster Pasch